Fund managers are more confident than ever that longer-term bond yields are headed lower. That
Author: therealheisenberg
Wall Street Rates Forecasts Paint Starkly Divergent Pictures
It was Morgan Stanley’s Matthew Hornbach who once said, “history has shown consensus estimates for
No Fed Cuts For A Year: The Hawkish Case
As you might’ve heard, there’s considerable disagreement across major banks regarding the likely trajectory of
Mike Wilson Delivers Hotly-Anticipated 2024 US Equity Outlook
55 pages of Mike Wilson. Just imagine. For market skeptics, Christmas arrives every year in
Why One Bank Expects Massive Fed Cuts In 2024
UBS has a bold forecast for the funds rate in 2024. In a year-ahead outlook
Why Goldman Is Bullish On Commodities. Again
Goldman is bullish on commodities. In itself, that’s not exactly news. Goldman is perennially constructive
Morgan Stanley Sees Narrow Path To ‘Perfect Landing’
Year-ahead outlook pieces from Wall Street are replete with references to a navigable but narrow
Being A Little Honest
One of the most unnerving aspects of the far-right agenda in America is the effort
Stubborn To The Core
Inflation figures due out of the US this week will probably underscore the Fed’s contention
US Credit Rating: The Threat From Within
America may lose its last top credit rating. The decision by Moody’s to change its
The US Corporate Profit Recession Is Over
It’s official (almost): The US corporate earnings recession is over (with 89% of index market
Why One Popular Strategist Is Constructive Into Year-End
“It feels to me like a short vol trade in rates,” Nomura’s Charlie McElligott said
Inflation Demon Resurfaces As Consumer Psychology Deteriorates
The inflation demon isn’t yet fully exorcized from the US economy. University of Michigan sentiment
McElligott Explains How ICBC Hack Might’ve Impacted Long Bond Sale
As the keen among you have surely surmised by now, the optically awful 30-year sale
Goldman Unveils Top Global Investment Themes For 2024
Earlier this week, Goldman unveiled their macro outlook for 2024. Suffice to say the bank’s
Princes And Emirs
Market participants in the Mideast are excited about the prospects for regional growth and economic
Money Fund AUM Hits New Record. RRP Drops Below $1 Trillion
Money market funds took in another $17 billion in the week to November 8, data
Powell Reiterates Fed ‘Not Confident’ Rates Are High Enough
Headed into Jerome Powell’s speaking engagement on Thursday, some market observers (myself among them) suggested
Déjà Vu Strikes In Rough Long Bond Sale
A tail at Thursday’s 30-year auction was all but a foregone conclusion. The long bond
Is $1.1 Trillion In Credit Card Debt Finally Catching Up To Americans?
Americans have quite a bit of credit card debt. Maybe you heard. Maybe you even
Where Are Stocks Most Vulnerable To Recession?
What’s the most vulnerable segment of the market? That depends on your macro outlook, but
‘Just No Need For A Recession’: Goldman Delivers Optimistic 2024 Macro Outlook
Goldman is pretty optimistic about global growth and (dis)inflation in 2024. That was the overarching
Albert Edwards Conjures Milton Friedman In Warning Of 2024 Bust
“Is the big surprise for 2024 going to be a cyclical deflationary bust?” Readers can
For Bears, Another Frustrating Turn
It’s been a frustrating year for equity bears. The earnings recession was supposed to be
Treasury Rally Survives Week’s Key Event Risk
All eyes were on bonds this week following the sharp rally which turned November’s first
How Much ‘Extra’ Cash Is Left Out There?
How much “extra” cash is out there? That question is a fixture of the post-pandemic
Dicey Oil Eyed As Demand Canary
Things were looking dicey for crude mid-week. I mentioned previously that the “powder keg” premium
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