All eyes were on bonds this week following the sharp rally which turned November’s first three trading sessions into a cross-asset bonanza.
A sparse data docket left the nascent duration bounce at the mercy of Fedspeak and supply reception, with Wednesday’s 10-year sale the unquestioned marquee event. Suffice to say some observers were inclined to suggest the fate of the long-end rally rested with the benchmark refunding.
With that in mind, the 10-year sale tailed by 0.8bps. The non-dealer share was below average as was the bid/cover, and yet Treasurys were undeterred. Another sharp bull flattener was intact into the US afternoon.
A simple read says the market was happy to put the supply event in the rearview. The tail wasn’t large enough to rekindle the oversupply concerns which drove the term premium repricing, and thanks to last week’s run of soft data, the macro backdrop is much more constructive for duration than it was just two weeks ago.
10-year yields fell near 4.50% following the auction. 30-year yields were the lowest in more than a month.
“It has been a long time (in auction years) since the norm has been stop-throughs at 10-year auctions and, therefore, investors [were] operating under the assumption that the auction stop rate came in above the WI,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery said, adding that investors might be “encouraged by the mounting list of reasons to add duration exposure at this stage in the cycle.”
Although the long bond sale still looms, the market’s apparent willingness to take what I think it’s fair to call mediocre 10-year sponsorship in stride leaves the door open for the rally to persist. Or even extend.
The more entrenched the rally becomes (the longer it sticks around and the further it runs), the higher the odds of CTA covering. “Based on high frequency futures order flow data, we estimate that CTAs covered around +$40 billion of shorts in rates futures” in the past week, JPMorgan’s Peng Cheng, Libin Cheng and Emma Wu wrote, in a November 6 note.
They estimated more than $90 billion of net buying in Treasury futures over the next month, assuming a flat market. The lion’s share of that buying would be at the long-end, they said, with the majority coming in the next week.
As discussed here at length over the past several days, there’s been rampant speculation about outsized notionals on any short covering into a rates rally extension given legacy positions across bonds and STIRs. CTA covering (or a flip to “long”) could exacerbate the flattener, causing more stop-outs.
This week’s supply events had the potential to mitigate the pain for legacy shorts and steepeners, but the follow through after the benchmark sale suggested otherwise. We may still be a ways away from a wholesale throwing of the proverbial towel, but the bullish tone at the long-end seems to have some staying power this time.
Read more: CTAs ‘Poleaxed’ In Rates Rally, But Big Short Cover Still Distant Prospect




When Japanese rates start to normalize, some of Japan’s $1.1 trillion in Treasuries may return back to JGB. Maybe 1H24?