The first two months of 2024 had all the ingredients of an equity selloff with
Author: therealheisenberg
Housing Market Crosscurrents Confound Buyers As Builder Sentiment Recoups Losses
It’s amazing what expectations for lower interest rates can do to bolster sentiment across an
Did The American Consumer Just Fold?
Bad news. Or good news, depending on how you want to look at it. Retail
Everybody’s In A Recession Except The Good Ol’ USA
If it feels to you like every important economy besides the US (and India) is
In Regrettable Milestone, Investors Buy One Out Of Every Four Affordable US Homes
25 years ago, the share of low-priced homes bought by investors in any given quarter
Could Irrational Exuberance Redux Drive The S&P To 6,250?
Are we witnessing a dot-com-style, tech-driven equity bubble in the US? That’s the market’s perpetual
Pavlov Kills The VIX Spike
“You simply have to short vol spikes in unemotional, mechanical fashion.” That’s the muscle memory,
The Caesar Kunikov Gets An Upgrade
Vladimir Putin lost another ship. Ukraine’s efforts to expel the czar’s invading army might be
Markets Dodge Bullet With UK Inflation Report
Earlier this week, “stronger-than-expected wage growth bolster[ed] BoE caution.” That’s an actual headline from a
More US And Tech Exceptionalism
If you favor US equities over the rest of the world, nobody’s going to blame
Inflation Throat Punch
Wall Street wasn’t enamored with the BLS’s inflation update, delivered to loud jeers in the
Gosh, Sorry About Your Rate Cuts!
One reader with a Wikipedia page was upset with me on Tuesday when I characterized
‘Magnificent 7’ Crowding Conjures Memory Of Epic Dollar Crash
It’s all about the “Magnificent 7” and market concentration. Bubble talk abounds and the prospect
Fed Hit With Horrendous Inflation Report In Body Blow To Soft Landing
Bad news! Consumer prices in the US rose at a brisker-than-expected rate in January, decidedly
Behold: Fund Managers Now Most Bullish In Two Years
Fund managers are the most bullish in two years. That was one, among many, takeaways
Mission Accomplished?
The New York Fed’s monthly consumer survey doesn’t typically make headlines, but the latest installment,
Easy Money: A Quick Earnings Season Recap And A Word On Dividends
Guess what? Earnings season in the US went fine. Surprised? No? Me neither. I don’t
Famous Bear Likes The Large-Caps
Large-cap US equities have achieved their independence from bond yields. Not entirely, of course. Risk-free
‘The Greatest Real Estate Crisis’ Since Lehman: How Bad Is Germany’s CRE Problem?
The German economy doesn’t need any more problems. The engine of European growth is stuck
Economists Cry Foul: Growing Chorus Says Fed Policy Too Tight
The Fed’s overstaying its welcome at terminal. That’s the message from a growing number of
With Allies Like These
I tend to ignore most of what Donald Trump says for what I assume are
Israel Readies Rafah Invasion Amid Debt Downgrade, ‘Too Far’ Criticism
“Victory is within reach,” Benjamin Netanyahu told ABC’s Jonathan Karl in a weekend interview. “We’re
Inflation Report To Test Epic US Equity Surge
Traders and investors will have plenty of macro inputs to ponder in the new week,
Flows, Sentiment And Too Much Information
We’re far enough into 2024 to start talking about YTD “trends” in equity fund flows.
Fed-Defying Stock Rally Turns Most Of Wall Street To Bears
Generic market wraps published on Friday described an unremitting equity melt-up deaf to the shrill
Nothing To See Here
There was no shortage of hype around Friday’s annual CPI revisions from the BLS. For
Reversing Greed
Last year, bearish positioning was “markets’ best friend.” In 2024, by contrast, positioning is poised
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