More US And Tech Exceptionalism

If you favor US equities over the rest of the world, nobody’s going to blame you.

If you favor tech over other sectors, nobody will blame you for that either.

And because “US equities” is a term that’s synonymous with tech (or “tech” in the colloquial sense that we refer to the mega-caps), favoring US stocks and tech shares is essentially the same thing.

On Tuesday, I ran through a number of highlights from the February edition of BofA’s monthly Global Fund Manager Survey. This month’s installment was chock-full of notables. In addition to showing the most bullish overall sentiment in two years and tipping acute overcrowding in the “Magnificent 7,” the poll evidenced the biggest allocation to US equities since November of 2021.

That month (November 2021) should ring a bell. At the top. It should ring a bell at the top, because that was the peak of the “everything bubble” which inflated on the back of trillions in fiscal and monetary stimulus.

The survey also showed tech allocations rose 10ppt from January to February and now stand at a net 36% Overweight. That, BofA’s Michael Hartnett noted, is the highest since August of 2020.

As the figure shows, investors generally maintained large tech OWs from 2009 to 2021. From the end of the GFC through early 2020 the trade was buoyed by a friendly macro-policy conjuncture for long-duration assets. Beginning in Q2 2020 and persisting until late 2021, tech shares were of course bolstered by the stay-at-home trade, Fed policy and a generalized equity market mania which at times manifested in eye-watering melt-ups for mega-caps.

The second chart also shows how rate hikes worked to deflate tech in the 12 months from November of 2021 to November of 2022. BofA’s Hartnett went on to note that tech’s now the #1 most OW sector for the first time since July of 2021.


 

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