“Victory is within reach,” Benjamin Netanyahu told ABC’s Jonathan Karl in a weekend interview. “We’re going to get the remaining Hamas terrorist battalions in Rafah, which is the last bastion.”
Netanyahu’s under immense pressure, including from the US, to wind down the Israeli ground campaign in Gaza and to cease and desist entirely from what most observers now openly describe as an indiscriminate bombing campaign that’s claimed the lives of countless civilians, including an estimated one out of every 100 Gazan children.
In addition to vestigial Hamas fighting units, Rafah’s also “home” to around half of Gaza’s population by now. Some 1.25 million people are there, having fled as far south as possible in a desperate, and often futile, attempt to stay out of harm’s way.
OCHA data suggests the number of internally displaced persons sheltering in Rafah more than doubled since early December and is now near 1 million after fighting in Khan Younis drove even more Gazans to the city.
Three months ago, tents started popping up around formal shelters. They (the tents) have since proliferated. The New York Times described a sprawling profusion of “impromptu encampments” in northwest Rafah, which a UNRWA employee called “a city covered with plastic sheeting.” Living conditions in the encampments, which in places abut the Egyptian border, are obviously squalid.
An Israeli military offensive would make the situation even worse than the nightmare it already is. Israel’s bombed Rafah repeatedly, but now the IDF’s poised for a ground operation. The US isn’t enamored with the idea. Antony Blinken reportedly told Netanyahu this month that The White House is worried about mass casualties, and wants civilians evacuated.
“This I agree with the Americans,” Netanyahu told ABC. “We’re going to provid[e] safe passage for the civilian population so they can leave.” As for where Gazans would go if they did evacuate, Netanyahu said he’s “working out a detailed plan.” Count me skeptical. The whole reason Rafah’s overrun in the first place is because the Israeli military ordered evacuations everywhere else. “We’re not cavalier about this,” Netanyahu insisted.
Meanwhile, Israel’s borrowing needs are set to surge this year. The cost of the war through 2025 is expected to be around $70 billion, some 14% of GDP.
Private sector estimates suggest the government will borrow nearly as much in 2024 as in 2020, during the pandemic.
Moody’s dealt Israel its first ever downgrade last week, but as Bloomberg noted, most of the debt will be sold to domestic investors, including pension funds and institutional buyers.
The ratings rationale was unsparing. “While fighting in Gaza may diminish in intensity or pause, there is currently no agreement to end the hostilities durably and no agreement on a longer-term plan that would fully restore and eventually strengthen security for Israel,” Moody’s said, cautioning that the “weakened security environment implies higher social risk and indicates weaker executive and legislative institutions” than previously anticipated.
“At the same time, Israel’s public finances are deteriorating and the previously projected downward trend in the public debt ratio has now reversed,” the ratings agency went on, adding that Israel’s debt burden “will be materially higher than projected before the conflict.”
Needless to say, Netanyahu’s government was furious. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich — a cartoonishly abrasive personality famous for inflammatory rhetoric, including the contention that there are no Palestinians — on Sunday lambasted Moody’s for publishing a “political manifesto.” Netanyahu was comparatively diplomatic. “The downgrade is entirely due to the fact that we are at war,” he said.
Meanwhile, a new AP/NORC poll suggested half of American adults believe Israel has “gone too far” in Gaza, up 10ppt since November.
The partisan split was stark, as you’d expect. The figure above suggests Democrats made up their mind about the proportionality of Israel’s response just weeks into the war. Republican views, by contrast, have evolved.
Although the share of GOP voters who believe Israel’s military campaign is now beyond the pale remains well below 50%, that share nevertheless increased sharply over just two months, nearly doubling from 18% to 33%.
As far as opinions regarding Palestinian statehood, Republican views haven’t shifted all that much from pre-war splits on net, with 18% now in favor versus 14% in August, but 34% now opposed versus 26% five months ago. Among Democrats, the share in support of a Palestinian state that includes the West Bank, Gaza and east Jerusalem is up 13ppt versus last summer, to 44%.
Too far?
Look, I know this isn’t a popular opinion here but, if 80% of the Gazans still support the ethnic cleansing (at best, the genocide at worst) of the Israeli, then I’m sorry but it means the Israelis haven’t gone far enough…
You’re absolutely right. It’s time to evolve “the punishments will continue until morale improves” to “the killing of women, children, the elderly, doctors, you know, basically everyone, will continue until you stop hating us and wishing us ill.” If only more people understood that peace in the Middle East can so easily be accomplished. All you have to do is kill all the people!
There’s not a lot of utility in responding to “fredm421.” By his/her own admission (in a comment from — I believe it was last year) he/she says things for the sole purpose of being abrasive both in online forums and in the real world. The mystery is why he/she does it here, a site not exactly famous for high-pitched reader comments.
That’s not quite what I meant. And not all my comments are abrasive. But on a couple of topics, I simply don’t see eye to eye with you (the damage of social media vs Fox New was another topic) and we have gotten in a bit of back and forth. I don’t mind and I appreciate you don’t seem to either.
So how did we convince the Nazis and the Imperial Japanese to renounce their war goals? They really really liked those policy goals of theirs.
Polls. The reality is that these enemies will never settle this until one or the other is gone. Defeated completely, gone.
Israel has been willing to compromise several times in its history till at least the year 2000. I’ll be the first one to admit Israeli society has hardened since 2000 and that there is a vociferous segment that isn’t interested in compromise. Still, overall, their political leaders used to be willing to compromise.
Wow, sort of like the good ol’ USA.
I’m not getting the parallel?
Ok, so let’s say it’s half that: 1 out of every 200 Gazan children is dead. Is that a “better” outcome? In one sense, sure, yes. In another sense, God no!
Some may wish it otherwise or have arguments about why Israel should proceed differently, but if you consider the motivations and constraints on the various parties, it seems clear that Israel will go into Rafah regardless of what others think. With Hamas hiding among civilians, the casualties among both will be significant – its been about 1:1 so far, and there’s no reason to expect different now.
So what are the implications for investors outside of Israel? Unless Gazans cross the Egyptian border, I don’t see any. Investors continue to care (a little) about the war spreading, but don’t care about the war in Gaza itself.
Wars continue until one side has achieved its aims, or until both sides are exhausted or otherwise compelled to cease; civilian casualties don’t end wars.