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Author: therealheisenberg

Global Stock Funds Run Inflow Streak To 18 Amid Rally

August 23, 2024August 30, 2024

If you’re curious — and I know you were! — global equity funds just enjoyed

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Rate Cuts Are Coming

August 23, 2024August 26, 2024

Jerome Powell’s keynote address in Jackson Hole was overtly — unequivocally, deliberately — dovish. No

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3 Comments on Rate Cuts Are Coming

Powell Emphatically Dovish: Fed Now Focused On Protecting Labor Market

August 23, 2024August 25, 2024

“The time has come for policy to adjust,” Jerome Powell said Friday, during a hotly-anticipated

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4 Comments on Powell Emphatically Dovish: Fed Now Focused On Protecting Labor Market

Big Box Sales Boom

August 23, 2024August 25, 2024

Sales of newly-constructed, cookie cutter, Hardie board boxes rose sharply in America last month, volatile

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4 Comments on Big Box Sales Boom

Rate Cut Parties, CRE Slow-Burns And Recession Canaries

August 23, 2024August 24, 2024

The Fed’s “loath to impose” reality on liquidity takers. So said BofA’s Jared Woodard, channeling

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4 Comments on Rate Cut Parties, CRE Slow-Burns And Recession Canaries

Money Fund Assets Scale New Peak Amid $100 Billion Month

August 22, 2024

US money market funds took in another $25 billion in the week to August 21,

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A Big Source Of Systematic Stock-Buying Is Back. Will It Matter?

August 22, 2024August 23, 2024

This’ll seem a bit repetitious to some readers, but it’s worth another mention: Vol control

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2 Comments on A Big Source Of Systematic Stock-Buying Is Back. Will It Matter?

Nobody’s Selling, Nobody’s Buying In America’s Frigid Resale Housing Market

August 22, 2024August 23, 2024

Sales of previously-owned US homes rose for the first time in months, but the pace

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23 Comments on Nobody’s Selling, Nobody’s Buying In America’s Frigid Resale Housing Market

Fed’s Soft Landing Story ‘Less Convincing’ Under The Surface, Uneven PMIs Suggest

August 22, 2024August 23, 2024

US services sector activity expanded at a solid pace while manufacturing contracted early this month,

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13 Comments on Fed’s Soft Landing Story ‘Less Convincing’ Under The Surface, Uneven PMIs Suggest

US Jobless Claims Unmoved Amid Labor Market Quandary

August 22, 2024August 23, 2024

US jobless claims were a non-event. Again. If you were looking for evidence to shift

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4 Comments on US Jobless Claims Unmoved Amid Labor Market Quandary

Is ‘The Whole Economic Edifice’ About To ‘Fall Apart’?

August 21, 2024August 22, 2024

There’s something a bit strange about suggesting market participants are nervous. After all, we’ve just

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5 Comments on Is ‘The Whole Economic Edifice’ About To ‘Fall Apart’?

‘Several’ Fed Officials Would’ve Supported A Rate Cut Last Month: FOMC Minutes

August 21, 2024August 22, 2024

“Many participants noted that reported payroll gains might be overstated,” an account of the July

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4 Comments on ‘Several’ Fed Officials Would’ve Supported A Rate Cut Last Month: FOMC Minutes

US Jobs Growth Hit With Huge Downward Revision

August 21, 2024August 22, 2024

US jobs growth was likely far weaker than originally estimated in the year to March,

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9 Comments on US Jobs Growth Hit With Huge Downward Revision

Mortgaging Millions

August 21, 2024August 22, 2024

The rate America’s legions of frustrated renters would hypothetically pay to finance homes that’ve shot

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6 Comments on Mortgaging Millions

Are Stocks Primed For A New ‘FOMO Chase Melt-Up’?

August 20, 2024August 20, 2024

Wall Street snapped its best win streak of 2024 on Tuesday, when the S&P slipped

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1 Comment on Are Stocks Primed For A New ‘FOMO Chase Melt-Up’?

Are Betting Markets Mispricing The September FOMC Meeting?

August 20, 2024August 21, 2024

The size of next month’s rate cut from the Fed depends almost entirely on the

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1 Comment on Are Betting Markets Mispricing The September FOMC Meeting?

The Mechanics Of A History-Making Market Turnaround

August 20, 2024August 21, 2024

By now, regular readers are well apprised of the extent to which the August “whiplash”

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4 Comments on The Mechanics Of A History-Making Market Turnaround

China’s Property Crisis Reaches Tipping Point As Xi Green-Lights Price Wars

August 20, 2024August 21, 2024

China’s letting the market determine the clearing price for new homes. That’s a new idea

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4 Comments on China’s Property Crisis Reaches Tipping Point As Xi Green-Lights Price Wars

‘Straight Cash Homie’

August 19, 2024August 19, 2024

As anyone who keeps tabs on markets is aware, inflows to cash are largely unabated.

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Sequencing S&P 6,000

August 19, 2024August 21, 2024

There’s a tactical opportunity to buy the dip between now and the September FOMC meeting.

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Goldman’s Rubner Sees Dip-Buying Window In ‘RINO’ US Equities

August 19, 2024August 20, 2024

“This is a no rules market,” Goldman’s Scott Rubner said Monday, writing from West Palm

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‘Bad Is Bad,’ ‘Good Is Good,’ Mike Wilson Says

August 19, 2024August 20, 2024

Bad news became bad news early this month. Maybe you noticed. In a world where

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2 Comments on ‘Bad Is Bad,’ ‘Good Is Good,’ Mike Wilson Says

Aftershocks: Crowded US Tech Stocks, Yen Still Pose Risk To Markets

August 19, 2024August 20, 2024

Is it over? The (growth) scare and the (vol) shock, I mean. In some respects

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1 Comment on Aftershocks: Crowded US Tech Stocks, Yen Still Pose Risk To Markets

What Usually Happens When Fund Managers Are This Worried About Fed Policy

August 18, 2024August 18, 2024

Pros are more convinced than ever that monetary policy’s too restrictive. That was one of

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JPMorgan Identifies ‘Point Of No Return’ For Stocks After Selloff ‘Dress Rehearsal’

August 18, 2024August 19, 2024

When should you throw in the towel on the equity rally? Not on August 5,

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2 Comments on JPMorgan Identifies ‘Point Of No Return’ For Stocks After Selloff ‘Dress Rehearsal’

There’s One Helluva Disconnect Buried In Wall Street’s 2025 Profit Forecasts

August 18, 2024August 19, 2024

A few days ago, I revisited “the enduring paradox” of an equities bull case built

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3 Comments on There’s One Helluva Disconnect Buried In Wall Street’s 2025 Profit Forecasts

Eyes On Jackson Hole As Powell To Confirm First Fed Cut

August 18, 2024August 19, 2024

Jackson Hole’s on deck. That’s pretty much all you need to know about the third

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2 Comments on Eyes On Jackson Hole As Powell To Confirm First Fed Cut

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