The size of next month’s rate cut from the Fed depends almost entirely on the August jobs report.

I assume that’s obvious, but it’s worth reiterating all the same. This month’s US “growth scare” was brought to you by the Sahm rule, and although subsequent developments on the macro front (e.g., a decline in jobless claims and a solid read on retail sales) shifted the odds back in favor of a 25bps move at the September FOMC, it’s important to note that with a fourth consecutive benign CPI report in hand, all it’s going to take to nudge (or shove) the market back towards 50 is another uptick in the jobless rate.

Even if the UNR’s unchanged, a sub-100k NFP headline puts 50bps squarely in play. I’ve said that how many times? Quite a few. BMO’s Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman said the same today while documenting the tone shift from dove-turned arch-hawk Neel Kashkari.

“The fact that someone as hawkish as Kashkari is discussing cuts in less than a month implies a 25bps reduction on September 18 would be a unanimous decision — the more relevant question is whether a simple majority would endorse a supersized 50bps move?”

Their answer, for now, is “no,” but it hangs on the labor market. “[T]he onus is on the September 6 payrolls update to justify more than a 25bps move,” Lyngen remarked. “A sub-100k headline combined with another uptick in the UNR could readily shift market pricing back in favor of a 50bps reduction.”

With all of that in mind, I’d be remiss not to quickly highlight the chart below, which shows the share of survey respondents in a New York Fed poll who reported searching for a job over the past four weeks. As you can see, it’s the highest in a decade at more than 28%.

The same poll, released this week, suggested Americans are more concerned about becoming jobless than they’ve been since the summer of 2014. The average expected likelihood of becoming unemployed was 4.4%.

If you’re unfamiliar with the survey, it’s conducted every four months. The NY Fed gathers responses from around 1,000 people who are asked about their jobs and employment expectations.

Plainly, that’s not top-tier data. It’s not second-tier data either. I doubt most market participants have even seen that survey before. But if it’s incremental confirmation bias you’re after for any labor market downturn thesis you might be harboring, those prints will suffice.

It’s worth noting in this context that betting markets — using Polymarket — assign only very, very slim odds of a 50bps move next month.

I don’t know about anyone else, but to me that seems mispriced.

As we saw on August 2 and August 5, this situation can turn on a dime. Or perhaps I should say on a dime and a half.