“My bet is that on a relative basis, there are other shirts to buy.”
Author: Kevin Muir
Trader Breaks Down ‘The Monster Eurodollar Option Trade’
“Will these most likely be dust? Sure. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t buys down here.”
Trader: The Question Is When Does The Fed Blink?
“My guess is that it is later rather than sooner, but we are definitely getting closer with days like today.”
Trader Reminds You: ‘Tomorrow Is Another QT Day’
“But here we are, with tomorrow (Wednesday August 15th), having just a shade over $23 billion of bonds expiring.”
Trader: ‘The Chinese Have Fundamentally Changed The Way They Look At Gold’
“Still trading on top of one another. In fact, it’s almost tick for tick.”
Admit It: You’re A Yield Curve Apologist, Aren’t You?
“Well, I might not know much, but one thing that has gotten me into more trouble is to assume markets will play out neatly according to a schedule.”
One Trader Wants To Talk To You About China And Gold Price Manipulation
“I am far from some gold nut-bar who believes Fort Knox is empty and I understand the difference between a long-term income producing asset and some inert rock.”
Trader: There Is Only One Setting For Cowbell In Japan And It’s ‘More!’
“…that’s a pipe dream.”
Trader: ‘Cash Is Not Nearly As Attractive As Bearish Pundits Make It Sound’
“…what always intrigues me is the disconnect between what the market believes and what is the most likely outcome.”
Trader: I’m Hearing 1987 Is Back In Style
“Although every bone in my body wants to sell this market. I … (and I can’t believe I am writing this)… am petrified this trade is so obvious, it can’t be right.”
What’s Wrong With Investment Grade Credit? Some Possible Answers As Compiled By The Macro Tourist
“Whichever reason you are partial to, at least you now have a good list of excuses to pick from as to why IG is trading so badly.”
Trader Asks: Does IG Know Something Everything Else Doesn’t?
“Something unusual is happening.”
One Trader Reminds You To ‘Mark Your Calendar’
“It’s that time again.”
The Last Kiss
“I am much more worried about financial asset prices than I am about the real economy”…
Trader Warns: ‘This Fed Is Not On Your Side’
“The Federal Reserve will hike at least every other meeting until something breaks. Full stop.”
Trader: ‘This Is My Prediction’ On Inflation
“Well, bought from them.”
One Trader Asks: What If We’re All Looking At The Wrong Thing?
“For the past decade, Wall Street has gained at the expense of Main street. What if that’s about to change? What if Main Street is about to experience an economic revival that surprises all the bearish pundits?”
One Trader Asks: ‘Are We Sleep Walking Into The Next Crisis?’
“Quick – the United States suddenly backtracks on half century of globalization and enters a trade war with almost all of its trading partners – do you buy or sell equities? And how about bonds?”
One Trader Uses An ‘Absolutely Nuts’ Situation To Illustrate How Inefficient Markets Can Be
“Let’s put it together. This closed-end fund invests in FAANG-type stocks and then shorts volatility against it. Yup, nothing to worry about there.”
One Trader Weighs In On ‘The European End Game’
“…we have long passed the point where Germany can walk away from this union. Let’s forget the political implications of an EU collapse (which are considerable and provide a great degree of inertia for the EU remaining together), and instead focus on the fiscal implications.”
One Trader Wants To Know Where The Nuance Is When It Comes To Your Conviction Bond Call
“The few of us that argued locking in 10-year money at 1.4% wasn’t a good risk reward supposedly didn’t understand the overwhelming three Ds – debt, demographics and deflation. Yeah, ok…”
Trader Delivers ‘Harsh Realities’ On Breakevens, TIPs And Other Matters
“You have to be long TIPS, but also short Treasuries. Owning TIPS outright is not good enough.”
One Trader Takes A Closer Look At The Buyback Bonanza
Fade the Barron’s cover?
Trader: How I Learned Not To Fight The Fed And How To Trade ‘QT’
“The days when the Federal Reserve has a large bond maturity have seen abnormally large declines in the S&P 500.”
Pushing Against The Big Wave
“And if the money velocity stops declining, and god forbid, even increases, what will happen to the mountain of monetary stimulus that has been administered over the past decade?”
One Trader Ponders The Outlook For Gold
“…what is driving gold more at this point of the cycle? Is it the US dollar, or real yields? Has gold disappointedly not risen as high as the bulls would like given the US dollar weakness? Or has gold not declined nearly as much as the bears would have expected given the run-up in real yields?”
Trader: There Is No Better Signal Than This
“Don’t bother arguing with the hard-money gurus about the correct policy course. Just watch the yield curve. The market is smarter than all of us.”
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