Already have an account? log in
This article is FREE for you
Create a free account and join institutional investors, analysts and strategists from the world's largest banks
By submitting your email address you agree to receive communication by email
Trader: I’m Hearing 1987 Is Back In Style
By Kevin Muir of “The Macro Tourist” fame; reposted here with permission
I don’t know about
OR, subscribe now for unlimited access
By submitting your email address you agree to receive communication by email
By submitting your email address you agree to receive communication by email
The data looks to me like sentiment is weak but people are still heavily invested in equities. That seems to set the stage more for a rush to the exits than a meltup. Everyone’s already at the party but the sober ones are ready to run because they know the cops will show up soon.
What happens when the frog realizes he’s being boiled alive but there are so many frogs in the pot that he’s worried if he tries to leap out he’ll trigger a panic and everyone else will trample him… do you wait in the pot another min… you might live through that minute or do you trigger the avalanche and hope you make it out. You may stop inviting your friends to the pot but you’re probably stuck waiting for something else to startled everyone into a panic.
“When it’s obvious, it’s obviously wrong”
If that were true, there’d be no trend-followers and BTFD wouldn’t have been working consistently for the last decade.
A lot of the time, the crowd is indeed wrong. Sometimes, it’s just early. And very occasionally, it’s right. As for which of these applies today……tough to disagree with the comments from Chris and Jetfire.
“when it obvious, and every one knows it, and fades it, it’s right!