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fed Macro Tourist QE S&P 500

One Trader Reminds You To ‘Mark Your Calendar’

"It’s that time again."

By Kevin Muir of “The Macro Tourist” fame; reposted here with permission

KM1

It’s that time again. At the end of this month, the Federal Reserve has over $30 billion of notes maturing. I won’t rehash what this might mean for the market, rather for those not familiar, I ask you to go read Pink Tickets On QT Days.

Let’s do a quick recap at what happened at the previous big QT day – last month end – May 31st, 2018:

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Another large QT maturity day, and another down day in spooz.

Let’s update the table with the recent QT maturity days to have a peek at what it looks like now:

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The streak is alive and well. QT days have been rather large down days for the S&P 500.

And this month’s maturity is another big one – over $30 billion.

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I was surprised to find that government bonds can mature on a weekend. I don’t trade a lot of cash US treasuries and didn’t realize they can mature on a non-business day.

This means that this month’s QT maturity day effect will occur on Monday – not Friday’s month end.

So mark it in your calendars – Monday July 2nd spooz should trade heavy if this QT theory holds true.

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2 comments on “One Trader Reminds You To ‘Mark Your Calendar’

  1. monkfelonious

    I say Herr H. and Herr Muir have about the best graphics of ANY financial site, period. I’d like to find that one without the text so’s I could add my own. “Yes dear, I’m so happy to be shopping Nordstum’s with you and that collar DOES match your eyes…..meow”

  2. monkfelonious

    This morning on MW we have an opposite prediction regarding 6/2/18:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/july-2-will-be-the-most-bullish-day-of-the-year-for-stocks-2018-06-28

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