eurodollar fed Macro Tourist

The Last Kiss

"I am much more worried about financial asset prices than I am about the real economy"...

"I am much more worried about financial asset prices than I am about the real economy"...
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5 comments on “The Last Kiss

  1. The problem we have here is the 60 something’s are very adverse to the idea that they may have to strap their boots back on.
    Promises broken! Who would have thought.

  2. i think the last sentence says it all.
    and yes this knocking on the door 60 something is dam worried.
    2.5 years to go assuming i survive the next down turn. the end game is clear.
    i am out of this country. think the roman empire. .gov/fed and banksters are criminals.
    thanks Mr. H for all your work.

  3. Lance Manly

    Keep in mind how many companies out there are living on a life line of junk or near junk debt and are already in hock up to their gills. Any asset correction that cause the real economy to blip could bring them down like a house of cards.

    • Exactly. Companies like Apple etc. buying back their own shares at all time highs is going to bite them in the ass.

  4. Bulls love to diminish high P/Es by pointing to inflated forward earnings. Low rates have enabled debt fueled buybacks to continue for an unprecedented number of years and we all know that will continue in perpetuity. About those forward earnings, what if the late cycle stimulus plus drastically reduced tax receipts and Fed QT and Asian retaliatory bond selling send rates through the roof? Sky high corp debt, consumer debt, gov’t debt and margin debt all become far more expensive. Well then you’ve got a 20% earnings boost coming from tax reductions. Yeah, well what if that has exactly 2.5 years of life left before the orangutan and his posse leave with their tail between their legs and Dems put the prior tax structure right back in place? Forward P/E assumes there will never be a recession or a negative policy event. Good luck with that.

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