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Risk? What Risk?
On several occasions post-pandemic, I suggested we're in the habit of mischaracterizing the nature of our species, and relatedly, of succumbing to recency bias when we describe the 2020s as somehow a break with precedent.
By and large, our story is one of conquest, conflict, avarice, chicanery and generalized wickedness, with intermittent periods of relative stability and localized goodwill.
In other words: Volatility's the norm, calm's the exception. The so-called "Great Moderation" was an an
Also, don’t go to Haiti, on the off chance you were considering a cheaper vacation alternative in the Caribbean, especially if you are a male over the age of 60.
People in the US, and perhaps worldwide, have created narratives that define away “risk”; it’s Orwellian in a sense, complementing DJT’s own tendency to repeat lies until they are adopted by the masses as “truth.” The level of delusion about US markets is palpable. Leveraged ETFs, bitcoin ramp, deficits, etc., etc., are ignored b/c of belief that DJT will ensure that the market goes higher and higher. DJT must have the magic wand Hayek, Schumpeter, Von Mises and others overlooked. Prior to covid and DJT’s second coming, most accepted that business cycles may be delayed but not replaced by an economy and markets that grow into perpetuity. Yet that is exactly the narrative taking hold in the US. Trump’s election is perceived as eliminating or overcoming risks (charitably defined) associated w/ market imbalances, economic cycles, etc. It’s a kind of crazy under the surface much more bizarre than what I recall in the dot.com bubble or the months preceding the GFC. Much more subtle and perhaps, for that reason, at some point much more dangerous economically and politically.
For now, H and McElligott describe well the momo and options-related forces in control of markets.
Meanwhile there is some good news from an amoo vendor I’ve used in the past.
Note the reference to “pre-inaugration pricing”. :
“BACK IN STOCK!
As Low As 48 ¢/round. Regularly 52¢/round
(pre-inauguration pricing)
Sellier & Bellot 12 gauge Shotgun Ammo
00 BuckShot 2.75” 9-Pellet
25rd Box or 250rd Case options, Max Dram, 1,214 fps
Home Defense, Riot & Critter Control 101
Runs great in auto-loading shotguns. “