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Making The Dollar Bear Case
It's not hard to make the bull case for the dollar.
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if the economy slows, fewer dollars will be needed. inflation is stickier than most think..or at least wont go back to 2% or lower until were in a recession—mix it all up and its stagflation.
last time forward earnings were sooo rosy was end of 2021. 2022 surprised many.
Can someone help educate this novice on the best way to trade this tactic?
I was going to ask a somewhat similar/ related question…as an equities guy most of my career, I have come to recognize that generally bond traders / market are smarter, and currency ones the more so. One idea I’ve recently taken a small position in is emerging markets government bonds (an etf)…liking higher yields than treasuries, and looking for principal appreciation with more rapidly falling rates. But, continuing dollar strengthening…and/or significant economic turmoil abroad, are definite risk factors. I’d be interested in any comments from other readers – many if not most of whom seem more sophisticated than I’ll ever likely be.