US jobless claim were a nonevent Thursday. I mention them only in the context of the two prior weeks, which saw meaningful increases.

Initial claims remain very subdued by historical standards, but the headline did rise 38,000 over two weeks late last month.

In the week to February 3, by contrast, claims slipped to 218,000. That was below consensus. The median was 220,000, for whatever that’s worth (i.e., not much).

The four-week average is now 212,250. That’s the highest since December 23 but, again, “high” is a relative term in this context.

As the chart header suggests, the two-week uptick might’ve been another false alarm. Perhaps more than any other series, initial claims has frustrated recession spotters. As night follows day, every nascent increase gives way in fairly short order to the sturdy underlying labor market.

Continuing claims have generally trended higher, but even there, “progress” towards a recession is halting and the verdict’s always inconclusive. The week to January 27 (i.e., the week covered by Thursday’s update) was no exception. Ongoing claims fell to 1.871 million after rising to the second-highest in more than two years the prior week.

Ultimately, those looking for recession canaries are better served to search somewhere other than the bulletproof US jobs market. It’s just not a place where bears are welcome, and hasn’t been for quite a while.

Thursday’s update, BMO’s US rates team wrote, “only serves to reinforce investors’ understanding of the resilience of the labor market that offers the FOMC ample room to continue delaying rate cuts.”