The Recession That Never Came
Another day, another reminder that a US recession is just around the corner. Allegedly.
I'm not sure how much utility there is in mentioning the latest read on the Conference Board's consumer confidence index, but in the interest of being thorough, I'll briefly note that the headline gauge did move lower in April, suggesting, perhaps, that the bank failures took a psychological toll.
At 101.3, the headline index was the lowest since July. It's been a meandering affair for months. Suffice to sa
How about a little more concrete data to throw into the pot?
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/box-shipment-trends-their-worst-since-depths-of-great-financial-crisis
Derek, thanks for sharing the US box demand trend data. Very telling! (at least on the goods side of the economy)
I never have more to contribute than anecdotes, but my own business is certainly feeling like a downturn is happening. I’m hearing the same from other liquor stores in the North Jersey area, and when this business is slow, something is generally amiss. Granted, the booze business isn’t ‘recession proof’ as some like to think, but we are typically recession-resistant. But since start of the year, we’re down versus last year and continually creeping lower. Alternately, the on-premise (service) side of the business is apparently doing well, though it sounds like even that is starting to show signs of cracking.
For my part, I’m finally doing what I should have done 6 months ago: I’m raising prices almost across the board. And one more tight month will mean layoffs, too, something I’ve never considered in 5 years and will still be a last resort.
Thanks NY Jeff. Anecdotes aren’t data, but it was anecdotes like visits to some housing developments whose mortgages were all wrapped up in derivatives that helped lead to the Big Short.