That’s Great, It Starts With An Earthquake

A running joke during the four-decade bond bull market was analysts' penchant for suggesting yields might soon break modestly higher due to this or that macro catalyst, only to be frustrated again and again. As Morgan Stanley's Matthew Hornbach put it in February of 2018, "history has shown consensus estimates for Treasury yields are usually wrong [and] everyone understands that accurate point forecasts rarely occur." When predictions for higher yields were finally borne out, scarcely anyone c

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