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Tech Stocks May ‘Implode’ If Profits Slow, Famous Bear Warns
"2022’s selloff is a valuation story so far, but if profits decline, it’ll be more than that."
Said a wise man, on Wednesday.
That man was me, and I'd note that whatever wisdom I can legitimately lay claim to was hard-won, the product of a yearslong battle with myself. When it comes to impeding personal progress, I was a worthy adversary.
Self-deprecating humor aside, I do know some things by now. That happens if you survive long enough. One thing I know in 2022 is that, if wage pressures
That “Famous Bear” informs my perspective on a regular basis, which I appreciate very much. He was spot-on yesterday.
The Albert Edwards reminiscence tickled my personal memories of 2000-2001, which was not a little unpleasant at the time. I recalled dealing with the dot-com crash, but had not so much recalled formative investing experiences during the go-go 90s.
That whole episode, along with 2008, has been food for my investing disposition. I agree that top and bottom-line estimates need to be trimmed. We can’t go into a war and reasonably expect to avoid a fight.
Speaking of war, when time allows, I inform myself about the evolving strategy and execution of the war as it occurs in real time on the ground in Ukraine. I admire Ukraine, and its capacity for taking the fight to Russia. But at the same time, I have ongoing concern about rising fuel costs and inflation due to fuel impacts resulting from the war. Ah, these are the joys of investing.
What a mess. I wish I had the superpower to be able to call market highs and lows, but I do not. Even though I read H daily, and he was certainly indicating what was coming down the road, my “glass half full” disposition kept me from hitting “sell”.
I remain in equities, as painful as it is to watch, because in cash- I know I am losing 8-10% in purchasing power this year plus I have the added risk that I miss the bottom ( I most assuredly would). Thankful for my SPYD/VYM at this juncture.
I have definitely put the brakes on a few larger ticket items for 2022- giving Jerome what he wants!
I would greatly appreciate a post on what Stephanie Kelton is saying on MMT and money printing, in general.
+1 re the MMT angle. In Aus the federal election in 2 weeks features major childcare promise in order to grow productivity by large increase in female participation in the workforce in an attempt to help inflation (?) and improve equity. We have massive debt in realestate due to dubious tax policies, starving productive investment and massive deficit in housing so even the 0.25 RNA rate hike caused ripples of concern, limiting the rate hike pathway.