The Right Direction
"The bond market is reflecting, I think, the strength that we’ve seen in some of the recent data," Loretta Mester told CNN Friday. "Today’s employment report shows that things are still moving in the right direction."
US equities moved "in the right direction" too, likely spoiling a hodgepodge of pre-cooked bearish headlines in the process.
That's not to lampoon those of a bearish persuasion. It's just to say that some folks likely had to tweak or otherwise scrap their filler material afte
Hiking the forecast of the 10 year off 1.5%. hahaha. The phrase “mark to market” is so pre-GFC.
I was just looking at a 40-year chart of the TNX. It’s still within the downtrend. Anything can happen yet later this year. The resistance of the upper end of the channel, if it is allowed to get that far, will be epic.
Okay, this week was a pain. Can we get back, already, to tech and pandemic winners steadily leaking market cap to fund small and value? That is what makes fundamental sense, even more so with higher rates.
What happens next, as inflation hysteria fades away and the 10-yr drops like a rock, do we go back to watching the VIX crash too, as tech jumps up like a rocket?
Or, do we see people freak out over dropping yields and freeze in fear like a year ago?
Inflation won’t be fading away if we see a 5%+ print on GDP in 2Q.
The 10 could snap back down, certainly. Short interest appears high. Barring cb intervention, the backdrop for yields still seems to be up.
As Heisenberg has pounded the table on, the pace is what matters.
Place your bets.