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High Energy
If you were already bullish on oil and maintained a bullish bias headed into this week's OPEC+ meeting, consider yourself vindicated.
The cartel and allied producers won't raise output after all, with the exception of two small allowances (Russia and Kazakhstan will pump 130,000 and 20,000 barrels more per day in April). On top of that, the Saudis will extend their unilateral cut into a third month.
Taken together, that appeared to count as the most bullish possible outcome. Crude reflected as
Not only is this good for those who are long crude, but this should provide cover for the shale producers in the US the oil sands in Alberta. It also means a bit less stress on the HY debt financing No Am players.
Frackers in west Texas must be dancing in the streets….and their bond holders.
Completion of a lot of the wells will commence soon.
The stock bond correlation seems to be quite positive here. Does that have a read through on VAR and if not yet, when?
I went to a seminar not long ago (2 years ago- a lifetime it seems now). At that time the statistics for the standard deviation for brent crude was $38 per barrel annually. I do not know what the standard deviation for physical crude is now- but that gives you an idea about volatility in this sector. That is why there are analysts calling for $100 barrel crude. I do not agree, but it is surely possible.