“Like the tech stocks in 2000, this seeming perpetual motion machine is unlikely to work forever.”
Year: 2020
Checking In On The Earnings ‘Recession’
It’s the “hockey stick”-style reacceleration forecasts that have some folks concerned.
As Virus Death Toll Passes 1,000, Chinese Government Begins To Fear Idled Economy
Sick days. Lots of them.
Out On A Limb.
No asset is an island.
Trump Delivered A Meaningless MAGA Budget Today. Let’s (Briefly) Discuss
“Everyone knows the latest Trump budget is dead on arrival in Congress”.
5 Reasons Why The S&P Didn’t Selloff Dramatically During Coronavirus Scare
…efforts to speculate on how far stocks might fall proved superfluous.
William Barr Takes Break From Ukraine And Theocratic Speechmaking To Indict Chinese Army For Equifax Hack
“…the scale of the theft was staggering.”
JPMorgan Flags Worsening In ‘One Of The Most Important Market Indicators’
“…similar to 2018, rate markets are sending warning signs”.
Markets Ill At Ease In New Week As Coronavirus, Kramp-Karrenbauer Downfall Weigh
Testing investors’ deeply-ingrained Pavlovian dip-buying instincts…
Inflation In China Surges Again, While Producer Prices Climb Out Of Deflation
All of this comes with a caveat.
A Health Crisis, A Fed Chair, A New Bubble And One Largemouth Bass
“One might, perhaps, see the recent price-action of the Tesla as supportive of this idea.”
Stocks’ Immunity To War, Pandemics, Saps Active Managers’ Joie De Vivre
There’s still hope for stock pickers, though.
Revisiting The Ultimate In Ironic, Tragicomedic Fed Outcomes For 2020
It’s almost fatalistic.
Excerpts From Canada’s Forgotten Tale Of Financial Calamity
“I believe the situation we find ourselves in is analogous to a tsunami coming.”
A Correlation Flip, And A Quick Recap Of Charlie McElligott’s 2020 Macro Outlook
Once we get beyond the virus, we’ll be back pondering the same, familiar dynamics.
A Virus Stole My Reflation Trade
These are the kinds of headlines which have made investors reluctant to carry risk into the weekend.
Hours After Removing Purple Heart Recipient Alexander Vindman, Trump Fires Gordon Sondland
“There is no question in the mind of any American why this man’s job is over”.
Macro Tourist: Prepare For M.O.A.S.
“Central Banks will be back to buying anything with a CUSIP”.
Emerging Market FX Looks Vulnerable As Commodity Plunge, Virus Worries, Idiosyncratic Risks Are Noxious Mix
A helpful reminder at a delicate juncture.
The Coronavirus Infects Fed Communications
“The recent emergence of the coronavirus, however”…
‘We Have To Be A Little Wary’: Jobs Report Marred By Revisions, Overshadowed By Virus
“Markets appear sanguine, but at the very least”…
Jobs Report Blows Through Expectations As Labor Market Heats Up Anew
This topped even the most optimistic estimates.
Germany, Which Runs A Surplus And Can Borrow For Free, Posts Worst Industrial Production Plunge Since Crisis
The YoY print was, in a word, terrible.
Palpable Angst, ‘Deep Regret And Condolences’ As Virus Fears Return
Xi, meanwhile, has a public relations problem on his hands.
The Best-Laid Plans Of Mice, Men And Monetarists
It is (past) time for a fiscal solution.
The Macro Case For Buying Stocks After This Week’s Surge Is Very Weak Indeed
A deeply-ingrained Pavlovian instinct…
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