Benchmarks & The 2018 Melt-Up Parallel
"The bullishness is rampant," David Rosenberg, who's always good for a quote or two or three (or however many you want to extract from him) told Bloomberg, for Friday's edition of "Katherine Greifeld, Lu Wang, Sarah Ponczek, and/or Vildana Hajric do cross-asset strategy."
There are several jokes in there.
Rosenberg's always got the medicine if you need to pair a recognizable name with a cautionary quotable.
And every Saturday, Bloomberg readers wake up to a handful of prominently-displayed ar
Great as usual. I had to chuckle at the BoA macro forecast of a 3800 S&P by year end 2021, we may well get there by the end of this month before the current rally dissipates. If we close both 2020 and 2021 at 3800 I’m not sure what happens in between will be fun but it will not be boring.
The market goes up an escalator and down an elevator. It is fiendishly hard to call tops or bottoms…..
I find this part of the equities cycle hardest to deal with: your longs are all quite green, every morning is a gift of new breakouts, and you’re walking on air.
Guess it’s time to pull out some stop orders, even if I’m not willing to fade the rally just yet.
Trailing stops seem the way to go…
Global pandemics like this come along once a century. Never in history has mankind been dramatically rescued from a rampaging plague by a heroic scientific discovery (that’s the made-for-Hollywood scenario, anyway). The standard bull-bear gauges, calibrated to peg their needles one way or the other every few years, may be inadequate. Wouldn’t you expect some of those gauges to shatter in a 100-year or never-before-in-history event?
Relying on momentum change and trailing stops sounds good in theory as long as price movements are continuous and not subject to a jump diffusion process. If the a continuation of the melt-up is to be positioned, there is a case for owning it through options.
Agreed. As the run up continues the options get cheaper, and the stop loss price (the strike) is guaranteed.
H, you are way better than paragraph 2 and 3.
i don’t think you get the jokes. or at least not totally anyway. some of it is an “inside baseball” type of deal.