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Uber-Goldilocks
I guess we need to add a new term to the lexicon: "Uber Goldilocks."
You remember "Goldilocks," rig
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I can’t think of a better way to start off the new year than with a $2T tranche of fiscal support in Q1. The trade off for us would a burned down equities market and another recession. As others have so keenly pointed out, nothing will light a match under the Red Senate faster than deflated Vanguard 401(k) portfolios.
An outlier scenario is Biden is inaugurated with equities down 12-15% (just a WAG) in early January, COVID killing thousands each day, and employment a wreck. Maybe he also gets mass protests. No where to go but up. There’s the 100-day honeymoon. Vaccines come into play in Q2. Oil consumption increases. Jobs recovery. Thereafter, probabilities for decent times between Q3/Q4 and midterms could be pretty good…barring who knows what.