Something Dramatic This Way Comes
You can now toss out whatever expectations you may have had for the news cycle in the week ahead. Following Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death, it is now all about Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, and you should expect the headlines to reflect that.
Although Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski are already on the record against confirming a replacement for Ginsburg ahead of the election, Lamar Alexander said Sunday he supports going ahead with the process. That's a blow to Democrats -- Alexander w
Wow, you’ve taken in up several notches this weekend. And you should, people are voting.
For those looking to time election trades around the safe harbor deadline, I’d point you to this excellent law journal essay from 2019: https://lawecommons.luc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2719&context=luclj
Barring a landslide in either direction, which seems off the table at this point, my takeaway is that there is a significant probability that we will not see a result by the safe harbor deadline. One reason is because there is a significant probability that several states may submit two conflicting results of their electoral votes (i.e. states with Republican controlled legislatures but Democratic governors, which include: PA, NC, WI, and MI).
There will be a concerted effort to stymie the counting of mailed ballots given the recognized post-election day phenomenon of “blue-shift”, and state legislatures may also claim fraud or “emergency” to assign electoral votes according to their judgment.
Believe it or not, the President of the Senate, Mike Pence, would be the arbiter of such a situation. Hard to see how the Supreme Court wouldn’t get pulled into this, likely well into January.
Yeah this fall is going to be the worst kind of interesting.