Volatility The Wayward Traveler (Unemployment Abyss 2045)
Perhaps the most important thing to understand about the societal unrest that continues to play out across American cities, is that while it represents pent-up anger over racial injustice and discrimination against minorities, it's set against an increasingly egregious wealth divide, which is itself partly a product of inequality of opportunity.
These dynamics are inextricably bound up with one another. The pandemic exposed the linkages by laying bare the extent to which the entire system rests
This thesis that the vol always runs to somewhere is reminiscent of Kolanovic’s (or was it Kocic’s?) observation that political uncertainty and drama tend to be correlated with more stable markets and, conversely, political stability can promote market vol.
If the entropy must go somewhere, then one option is to become a net exporter of entropy (vol); this works in thermodynamic systems. Would it work in this socio-economic vol complex too? By what fearsome mechanisms?
War
Kocic
Here: https://heisenbergreport.com/2019/03/23/deutsches-kocic-in-the-current-paradigm-calm-markets-cause-volatile-politics/
Thanks! Surprised to see it was published so long ago; the “current paradigm” has changed substantially, but perhaps some details are consistent. The Fed are still acting as full-time convexity managers, for one!
Over the last few weeks i have been venturing out more and more, especially to restaurants; business is definitely picking up. The local italian place (while observing social distancing rules) was still pretty busy Friday night. For everyone’s sake, let’s hope that the service industry gets back to some kind of normality. I wonder if we will remember the lessons we have learned over the last 6 months….somehow i doubt society will change until we get a forced reset.
Nice piece. This post really highlights the unfortunate misdirection of the press and politicians who are highlighting the growing unrest in terms of the immediate causes of protests. The real danger as you show graphicaally is what will happen when society experiences the result of the complete workplace skill gap that surgically removes the American Dream from 40% of the population.
Brilliant piece, among many such pieces here over the last several months describing the very near and also mid-term implications of our current state of play. Layer in the potential for continued and increasingly aggressive state capture on top of this, and the key tools for remedying any of this will be corrupted past a point of no return for so many more.
Gods indeed. At what point does a corporation worth trillions decide to declare itself a nation state? What safeguards do nation states employ to prevent their sovereignty from being impaired by a powerful corporation that has become a utility for modern life? What protections do those corporations have to protect themselves from an acquisitive sovereign?
You simply elect a functional president and congress that are willing to go back to a moderate antitrust stance. If the powerful corporation has become a utility, you regulate it like a utility.
There will be more populism, unless a constructive alternative is found. Populism is in the interest of the 0.1% so …
Ayn Rand was almost right. A large portion of the bottom 40% are going John Galt. Reference the “Mini Van Depression” NYT. The desperate calls for food workers in any position. (Free meals, Paid same day…) And since my annual trip to the states I’ve noticed the muzak has all returned to the 60’s, 70’s and 80’s.(Just keeping the Boomers docile.) Did anyone notice that liqour sales haven’t dropped a smidge.
Biden/Harris will have to become the new FDR’s. Then there will be another big war (population control). Sad that history repeats itself.
In preparation for the election aftermath, I did a little shopping for a tactical shotgun. These short barrel weapons are considered to be the best choice for home defense.
Every store in the region is sold out.
And for those who rolled their eyes at my suggestion that ammo will be a commodity more valuable than gold in a crisis — the local Caballa’s is limiting you to one box of popular handgun shells (9 mm and 380). And that is only available to those purchasing a new weapon.
A couple of shoppers referred to a perceived BLM threat. But we shared the counter with another bi-racial couple who shared our concerns.
Folks in the Trump belt will be surprised at how many moderate and left-of-center people have armed up in response to the appearance of Trump parades and cruises.
Please keep an eye on the violence and chaos and where it takes place. Assuming that the problems with racial and economic inequality are a national problem and not a state problem you have to wonder how it is that the democratically run states and cities seem to get more of the chaos. And if the perpetrators of the violence causing incidents and the people who travel to the problem states inciting the violence are organized we have a big problem. How else do you explain the difference?