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Averting The Worst-Case, Calling The Top, And Prepping For Vol. Events
Earnings season isn't turning out as dire as expected.
That statement is both true and absurd -- akin to suggesting the US economy held up "better" than anticipated because the preliminary read on second quarter GDP "only" showed an annualized 32.9% collapse instead of the 34.5% contraction consensus was looking for. The truth is, lacking any kind of historical precedent, estimates of all sorts are pure guesswork, as opposed to the partial guesswork that always goes along with forecasting.
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When the bar is set low enough the BeatS go ON…….
We lampooned how the Japanese reacted to the puncturing of their bubble. “They just should have let companies fail, like we would!”
Ayunh. Just as we did in 2009 & 2020!
So, it probably is logical to assume we will continue to follow Japan’s response itinerary and see the Fed buying ETFs.
Estimates (beating or missing) does not create true economic value or wealth. Only free cash flow does. I love a greater fool to sell to but I only rely on cash flow.
If my long term projections of FCF are undervalued I buy, I sell when they aren’t.
I care about absolute not relative numbers. May not work well in the short term always but does very well long term if you buy companies with sustainable competitive advantages at decent prices.
Good luck, interesting times……….
The ETFs chosen by the Fed will start a new bubble. Wonder which one are ajudged “American” enough to be picked. Frontrunners, on your marks!