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Joe Biden Odds Go Full-Tesla, Virus Spreads Virtually Unchecked
Equity futures rose Wednesday, as markets look to rebound from heinous losses incurred on the heels of the Fed's widely-panned "emergency" rate cut.
Helping to buoy sentiment is Joe Biden's "miracle" comeback in the Democratic primaries. Investors are hoping for a "status quo" nominee and they'd certainly have it in the former vice president.
Betting markets are rapidly adjusting to the new realities of the race which, just a month ago, seemed all but lost for Biden. The PredictIt chart for Jo
Mother nature has spoken
yep, you could say that mother nature is expressing her view on trumpism and its populist relatives around the world. A year from now, we’ll all have a new-found appreciation of how much we depend on each other globally and how little sense the “countryX-firsters” make – anywhere.
Meanwhile, I wish some analysts would look at the China data a bit more closely and extrapolate it to other economies, with a focus on the timing of recovery after the virus has been contained. We know that China’s return to work, car sales and a variety of other metrics ranging from power to transport have all been slow to improve. How that translates in the US and elsewhere is likely to be an “even slower” recovery (I think), because we can’t react as quickly as an authoritarian regime can and because we are unlikely to use extensive quarantines to halt the virus in the first place, meaning the economic hits will likely drag on longer before the recovery really begins.
Which dynamic will kick in first? – markets having enough economic data to really repair (“ok, slower but we can see the end of it now”), or economies shifting from “pothole slowdown” to “real structural damage happening” as small businesses start giving up and debt-impaired companies start running out of time.
Italy is an example – they are letting the red zone/yellow zone experiment run its course before trying anything tougher. I think countries need to realize that Covid will kill you with your own political expediency, and the US with our decentralized health system will pay double for it.