Pop Your Collar, The Black Swan Is Here.

Pop Your Collar, The Black Swan Is Here.

The plan on Tuesday was for G-7 finance ministers and central bankers to issue a joint statement to reassure investors who, hopefully, would be feeling pretty good about things after Monday's "best-in-a-decade" rally on Wall Street and an overnight RBA rate cut. Then, once the the communique had a couple of hours to resonate, the Fed would cut rates by 50bps just a half-hour into the US cash session. After that, Powell would hold a press conference an hour later. Policymakers probably assumed
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12 thoughts on “Pop Your Collar, The Black Swan Is Here.

    1. D’you mean: could a big, systematically important institution be in trouble again?

      In Q4, we saw the repo market dry up during the last month or so of the quarter. And here we are, mere days into March, with the same thing happening.

      Whatever the forcing function is, it seems to be periodic.

  1. Maybe if he starts cutting 50bps per week it’ll make people go to work sick and schools stay open and a vaccine be developed. I mean how low do rates need to be for us all to play 2/100 odds Russian Roulette? Maybe if you got to refi your house, student loans and credit cards at 0% interest? No…? Me neither.

  2. H-Man, once again the BlacK Swan is flapping her wings. And she is angry. She can’t understand how 1 million virus testing kits were promised on Monday translated to 47 being shipped on Monday.

    1. But that’s easy to understand. Kits were handled by clowns, which were supervised by monkeys. I assume CDC has plenty of both.

  3. I don’t see a recovery within decades. Thanks trump! Negative yields ahead equity crash and and at least 6 months of sustained downtrend.. pretty hard to dig out ever!

  4. That swan was obvious since January. And, of course, nobody did anything to prepare for pandemic.
    I’ll make short prognosis for 2020 in USA: 15 millions infected, >100000 dead, deep recession. This is not fearmongering, this is optimistic scenario

    1. This is totally ridiculous. Please do not leave these kinds of comments on Heisenberg Report. There is zero justification for your “prognosis” and this serves no purpose but to stoke fear. That is not welcome here.

      1. Yes, those numbers are ridiculous, ridiculously low. No flu season has ever produced infection numbers that low. Covid is twice as infectious and nearly 20 times as virulent as the seasonal flu, at present. Without a substantial change in the nature of this virus, these numbers will be far worse.

        I’ve read you for a long time and I know you can crunch numbers. Take the R(0) and halve it. Take the CFR and halve that as well. The numbers that you get still suck.

        Here’s the thing, the numbers are bad but the percentages aren’t. I’m in the group where I have a better than 90% chance of getting passed this virus. This is to say that my stairs are more dangerous to me than the virus. Below my group most of it is simply a rounding error around zero, Yes, these numbers may be quite large eventually but population wise, they aren’t more than a blip,

        1. Michael: Read your comment and compare it to the comment I was responding to. Do you see why yours is a value-add while that person’s is not? That’s my only point. You’ve provided a balanced assessment that readers can benefit from. That other comment (even if it turns out to be true) was merely an ad hoc effort to throw out some fear. I want more comments like yours and less comments like his/hers. And my response has achieved that outcome.

  5. There were no great choices for Powell here, but we’ve all watched enough enjoyably silly TV shows to know that succumbing to extortion doesn’t generally end well. In giving into the market (and/or the president if you’re so inclined) Powell has simply invited more, and more extreme, concessions. If you’re looking for a silver lining, which isn’t easy in these times, it is perhaps that we can now foresee with a growing sense of confidence the end of this business/financial super-cycle. One only hopes that the associated collateral damage can be managed though political means.

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