Risk Aversion Lingers As Virus Deaths Climb Ahead Of Fed
Risk aversion crept back into markets on Wednesday, as the death toll from the Wuhan virus continued to rise.
At least a 132 are now dead, and the number of confirmed cases is approaching 6,000. The US and UK have asked citizens to avoid any non-essential travel to China, and it's possible the US will ban air traffic into and out of the country. The UAE on Wednesday reported the first confirmed Mideast cases in a family traveling from Wuhan. The US evacuated citizens from the city on a charter
have to be careful when trying to determine the impact that SARS had on markets in early 2003. This was also the time period of the prelude to the iraq war. i went back and read the commentary on CNN money daily recap and all the reasons given for the market turmoil was related to iraq. i actually found no mention of SARS
H-Man, there was a very recent study done by a Dr. Jonathan Read that predicted by February 4 the number of detected cases would be 12,844 in Wuhan but the actual number of infected persons in Wuhan will be ~250,000. Currently there are 6,000 cases being reported with six more days to go. The bad news is that Dr. Read is reporting that travel restrictions will not really slow this thing down. If Dr. Read’s projections pan out next Tuesday, this could be the “big one”.
H-Man, musings on the virus. If it goes off the charts and becomes the “big one”, how receptive will the US be to receiving imports from China which may carry the virus?
Well, that’s an interesting question, and, in fact, it was posed by a Bloomberg executive editor in Hong Kong this week
H-Man, since I don’t subscribe to Bloomberg, the interesting question begs the interesting answer. Occams’s Razor suggests the reception of the China imports will not be received well by the US.
Lance Roberts realinvestmentadvice points out that the markets were just coming out of the 2000-2001 dotcom crash. There wasn’t much air under the markets then as compared to today. SPX was trading under the 39 week moving average till April 2003 whereas last 10 years that MA has been flat to uptrending.