The ‘Boris Bounce’ Lives! ‘Decisive Change’ In UK PMIs Stokes Confusion Around Expected BOE Cut
Exactly a week ago, a disastrous retail sales report appeared to end the debate on whether there was or wasn't a "Boris bounce" for the UK economy following the landslide Conservative victory in December.
Long story short, retail sales have been either flat or fallen for five straight months. That is the worst streak since 1996. The news came on the heels of terribly disappointing inflation data.
Together, the retail sales numbers and the most sluggish headline inflation since November 2016 vi
Without examining the data–when WIRP is 45 or higher, my guess is that 9 times out of 10 G10 central banks have cut rates in the past 12 months. Would it have to fall to sub-30 on the cut probability to put it out of reach. Post “beer-virus” escalation one imagines the probability might well move back towards 70