The ‘Music Of The Credit Cycle’ Will Keep Playing – Until It Stops
If you're looking to capture the "essence" of the current cycle, you needn't look much further than the explosion in non-financial corporate debt and the concurrent bid for equities from corporate management teams.
That's the message one gets from a quick read of Oleg Melentyev's base case for 2020.
Melentyev is BofA's US high yield strategist. In a note dated Friday, he expresses a generally benign take on things headed into the new year. But that's contingent on the somewhat dubious dynamics
If you think that Trump is motivated by ideology or principles then you see a problem for the world economy. If you consider Trump as basically a narcissist then you know he will soon make whatever deal he can with China and declare it to be the greatest triumph in trade negotiations known to man. Therefore, I am long China.
Me, too. China was forging a civilized country 4000 years before the countries of today have even existed. In the middle 1800s the countries we call Italy and Germany didn’t exist. China has been forging trade deals for 1000s of years. I think they have more experience than the rest of us put together. To ignore this is folly.