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Why One Bank Thinks The Probability Of A New Equity ‘Melt-Up’ Has Increased

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4 comments on “Why One Bank Thinks The Probability Of A New Equity ‘Melt-Up’ Has Increased

  1. Anonymous

    How does one estimate the diminishing returns aspect of easing? That may become the main risk if not the black swan we all don’t see. That diminishing potency seems to be evident in China right in the face of pervasive denial by expert external analysts.

  2. I can’t take seriously a recession scenario entailing only a 20% sell off in equities.

  3. Some fuzzy logic from Barclays here. The three options are not mutually exclusive.

  4. More volatility likely both up or down than Barclays is projecting. Credit is the fulcrum- if us treasury rates drop, but credit lags we could be in for a pretty significant setback in both the real economy and markets. Or if intermediate to long rates go back up but credit is benign and markets stay open you could get a nice rally with a much steeper yield curve coupled with a supportive FOMC.

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