‘The Economy Is Both Booming And Headed For Recession’: The Fed And Schrödinger Plates
A fixture of debates about the relative merits of Fed cuts in the current environment is the paradox of conflicting data, some of which suggests the US economy is rolling over, some of which suggests it's not.
This is something that's vexed Fed officials and while there are a number of ways to illustrate it, a simple visualization might simply show, on one hand, unemployment loitering at a five-decade nadir and, on the other, manufacturing surveys diving to Trump-era lows amid trade uncertainty
I don’t know about the data, which is mixed, but Gold and Treasuries say recession is close.
This bubble is several times the size of 2008…….the recession should be much worse.
Rhetorical question: “Can we ever know which hole the trumpon will go through in the government’s diffraction grating?” The problem is that the problem (uncertainty about which way will the trumpon jump?) is a solution to another problem (“If you knew what the trumpon was going to do, you and your cat would both be dead.”) I prefer the uncertainty. If we know accurately the trumpon’s position in a given policy space, then we can never know how fast he is moving away from that position. If the media would stop trying to measure both the trumpon’s velocity AND its position (known as media attention), then the trumpon would automatically disappear into a black hole and the universe could go its own way. (sigh).
Hopefully discreet bundles of the electorate will represent the full spectrum of America and act to participate in a wave election.
The only way we can go from 1 to 2 is if the electorate absorbs the light and evicts the phony.
🙂
great comment!
especially on this site
In broad terms, aren’t the strong economic data mostly the concurrent indicators while the weak data are the leading indicators?
yeah.
As my kids explained to me when they saw this, if you care at all about the plates, you break the glass above the plates and rescue them.