‘Man, This Is A Tough One’: Nomura’s McElligott Delivers Last Minute Fed Take
"Trust me, you have time to read before the FOMC", Nomura's Charlie McElligott promises, in the title of a Wednesday morning note.
You've gotta love Charlie - in case you were scanning various "hot takes" pre-Fed and you were trying to budget your time, he just lets you know in the subject line that you need to make time for his.
Right off the bat, McElligott reiterates the potentially dangerous unwind in crowded trades that would accompany a hawkish surprise. "The perceived ‘binary’ natur
This to me this is likened to perpetrating a cynical hokes on all of us who depend on this system of checks and balances for our livelihood..And by the way that is all of us to varying degrees…………
If you are ultra-dovish, then a dovish pivot by the FOMC would be a hawkish surprise, ultra-dovish would be a base case, and Everything it Takes would spook the markets about impending recession and politicization. The markets could swing 0.1%, nay!, 0.2% in either direction over the course of the week the results are so important. The Fed will have to stick the landing by delivering ultra-dovish, but give dovish forward guidance with hints of Everything it Takes, or maybe a dovish surprise with whispers of ultra-dovish. Every adverb must be parsed exceptionally closely. This is where we see who teh pros are.
Or he could announce the premature scale-back or even termination of QT prior to Sept.?
It all has been way over parsed already especially indicated by even Charlie joining the guessing game….Bottom line this is an anesthetized market and Brain Dead president who has seized the helm.. This is not a healthy economy and won’t be until we Flush it down the potty.