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‘Apocalypse Postponed’
If you ask 66 fund managers with some $821 billion under management across the UK, Continental Europe, Asia and the US, it's time to get more optimistic when it comes to forecasting a reasonably benign resolution to global trade conflicts.
That's the general conclusion from the latest edition of BofAML's rates and FX sentiment survey, which carries the amusing title "Apocalypse Postponed."
Respondents now believe a "broad" trade deal between the US and China is the most likely outcome. Compare
In spite of the fact that no government can afford a down equities market or recession ….this is still called moving the goalposts in the vernacular…
Hi Heisenberg, thank you for another great piece. “Eventually, all cycles turn . . .” I realize that this is a rather simplistic sounding question, but is it not quite possible that central banks have succeeded in suppressing (if not removing entirely) cycles and their boom-bust effects? I think that it is reasonable to draw this conclusion, because the Fed’s (as an example) inflation/employment statutory mandate could be read to be, in effect, a cycle suppression mandate. In other words, maybe we have finally arrived at a point where at least major stock market indices are not mean-reverting because the societal consequences of a cycle turning and the stock market mean reverting would be unacceptable to policymakers.