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‘Imported Trouble’: Why One Bank Sees Virtually No Upside For Stocks From Here

"... we expect almost no earnings growth for 2019."

"... we expect almost no earnings growth for 2019."
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8 comments on “‘Imported Trouble’: Why One Bank Sees Virtually No Upside For Stocks From Here

  1. “But do note that one thing is virtually irrefutable: the outlook for the global economy and, more narrowly, for asset prices, is becoming increasingly tethered to what happens in China.”

    True. And not just now, but we better get used to this concept from now on. China is already the largest economy in the world measured by purchasing power parity. Soon, it will surpass the US as the largest economy in terms of nominal GDP. And that once that happens, it won’t change for decades to come. Some of us grew up during a time when the US was by far the dominant economy, and was somewhat insulated from global economic trends. Those days are over, and China will become the most important economy in the world. It’s time to accept that reality.

  2. I just can’t countenance that this vertiginous 2-month Fed-fed orgasm of unconscious gain is anything but an insider-administered cardiac paddle, an (oxymoronic, in context) minatory sotto voce dictum by ScummoT, circa one very unMerry Christmas Day.

    I get that it’s a different day, different decade, different lack of even pretense about outright CB puppetry involved in flailing indices – but this all feels very much like the early springtimes of both 2000/8 – where high-teen percentage 2M spikes were the 3rd crowing of the cock…

    The thing is – the denotation of “earnings” is about as amorphous as the quiddity of “GDP.” And please – I honestly petition for correction if I’m in error – but since the Great Bush Recession, hasn’t GDP and earnings been preponderantly the co-dependent stepchildren of a recursive fiat-debt service-fiat rollercoaster? Of course there’s been real industry & service but – again, correct me if I’m wrong – hasn’t it almost all been cultivated in the Fed Petri dish?

    It seems to me that “healthiest economy” comparisons – aside from the increasingly flaccid US metrics – are countries basically comparing their ability to successfully juggle Treasury rape with apple pie kabuki.

    • monkfelonious

      Mags (if I can be so intimate) I generally get what you say but could you please make it so it were, can I say, readable?

      • I write as I write: for those who care to take an interest, a dictionary and a lusty appetite for metaphorical frolicking helps; for most, though, the disinterested prehensile rejection – scrolling down past my prose which, I admit, is dense enough to have a half life. I’m good with that, though.

      • Took the words out of my mouth! I even opened my old dictionary a couple of times. Me thinks Mags should have a blog for folks who wanna read that flowery pretense — then I saw Mags reply to your cute note. I will follow her advice and scroll past her prodigious prose.

    • Anonymous

      I enjoy your prose, Maggie. It’s decoding the insider-quant techno-babble written in a stream-of-conscious from Charlie McElligott (sp?) that gives me trouble.

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