On Monday, Elizabeth Warren took the plunge, announcing she’s formally launching an exploratory committee for a 2020 run at the White House.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump persisted in what is now a multi-day Twitter rant-a-thon the scope of which is difficult to fathom considering it emanates from a man who doesn’t use drugs and is famous for abstaining from alcohol.
Given Trump’s state of mind, you can be absolutely sure that he’ll renew his public attacks on Warren in the days ahead. ‘Liz will respond, effectively drawing the battle lines for 2020 and further dividing the nation in the process.
Readers invariably have their own opinion of Warren and regulars know we’re generally fans. The problem, though, is that she’s polarizing. Some of that isn’t entirely her fault, but it just is what it is. Her abrasive style is endearing to supporters and her efforts to take Wall Street to task are tireless and entirely laudable. But she’s probably not the candidate who’s going to unite a divided nation or otherwise help to right a ship that is currently charting a course for an iceberg.
A MoveOn.org straw poll conducted earlier this month showed Warren trailing Kamala Harris, Bernie, Biden and Beto.
(MoveOn)
If you’ve been paying attention at all for the past three months, it is absolutely clear that as right now, only two of those candidates can beat Trump. Beto and Biden.
While we’ve all seen (and reveled in) the jokes about how “any sentient life form” should be able to beat Trump in 2020 considering the fact that somehow, this administration has turned into an even bigger disaster than even the most ardent Trump critics predicted, the sad reality is that as long as the nation remains as divided as it currently is, and as long as some voters are willing to suspend disbelief in the course of remaining steadfast in their support of Trump’s agenda, he’ll be difficult to get rid of.
Trump’s presidency is clearly falling apart and it’s certainly possible that Robert Mueller ultimately drops the hammer/gavel, but we would warn that the generalized numbness to Trump’s antics that began to set in in 2018 is in some ways tantamount to acquiescing to autocracy. There’s a certain fatalism in becoming immune to his rants, tweets and generally despotic behavior. Yes, the media continues to pound him, but he’s pacified countless public servants, turned the GOP into a personality cult and demoralized two decorated generals who have chosen to resign rather than keep fighting. Meanwhile, the fanaticism of his base remains.
Large swaths of the American electorate have a deeply-ingrained hatred for anything that smacks of socialism and Trump has done his absolute best to paint Democrats with the Venezuela brush. That effectively means Sanders has no hope of convincing voters who are already inclined to despise his agenda to change their minds.
Biden could probably win, but the campaign would be couched in terms of absurd pretensions to machismo – it would be cartoonish and has the potential to exacerbate the extent to which American politics has descended into farce. Additionally, Biden comes with baggage that’s potentially exploitable although his track record as a public servant isn’t in dispute.
Beto emerges as the only candidate capable of creating the kind of unstoppable wave – the electoral fervor – that could rival the fanaticism of Trump’s base.
As for Warren, assuming she makes it out of what will obviously be a crowded primary field, it is a virtual guarantee that the campaign to oust Trump would turn dangerously vindictive. I simply cannot imagine a scenario where she is able to maintain her composure in a debate setting where she’s subjected to personal insults while standing right next to Trump. She would be drawn in and while it would doubtlessly be entertaining to watch a woman eviscerate Trump on the biggest stage in the world, that plays right into his (small) hands. You cannot win an insult contest with a man who is willing to stand up at the U.N. General Assembly and call another world leader (murderous dictator though he may be) “Rocket Man” on the way to threatening a nuclear holocaust. In the past two months alone, Trump has called two sitting lawmakers “sh*t” and “dick“, respectively.
More importantly, parts of Warren’s video message to supporters (released on Monday morning) are strikingly similar in tone to Trump’s inaugural address as it relates to America’s middle class.
Obviously, Warren is a champion for minorities and in that respect, she couldn’t be more different from Trump, but do me a favor and watch the video – specifically the rhetoric that starts at the ~1:00 mark:
Got that? Here it is again:
… others who work just as hard slip through the cracks into disaster. What I found is terrifying. These aren’t cracks that families are falling into, they’re traps.
I’m sorry, but no thank you. And not because it’s not true, but rather because it’s couched in the exact same kind of populist rhetoric that got Trump elected and that found expression in his insane “American carnage” inauguration speech.
Compare that to Beto’s famous “Baba O’Riley” air drums.
That’s a better 2020 video than Warren’s and it’s not even a campaign pitch.
The rest of Warren’s video is generally fine, although again, we would gently suggest that it’s too polarizing. The montage of Fox News that features Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity; the clip of Steve Bannon; and on and on. Paradoxically, it accomplishes the exact opposite of what it’s intended to accomplish. It makes anyone who has been duped into believing the Fox narrative or who was enchanted by Bannon’s message feel as though Warren is demonizing them. Obviously she doesn’t mean it that way, but that’s the way it will invariably come across to those voters.
This will not work. At least not if Trump somehow makes it to 2020 without getting himself impeached, indicted or thrown into a mental institution (he’s tweeted six times since I started writing this post).
We’ll close this on an extremely controversial note (one which will at least please Thornton). There are two people who could unequivocally beat Trump in 2020.
One of them is Beto.
The other one is Jamie Dimon.
It might be sad, but Warren has no hope, even against another candidate than Trump. For someone who has been in the public eye for as long as she has, she seems to be quite naive. Nor are all her policies robust. The Republicans will pull out all the stops to see her nominated, if they can’t get have the Bern to trash.
Jamie Dimon seems to have what it takes.
It’s not clear that Trump is going to be there in 2020. Some of his craziness is calculated – he throws grenades, everyone gets upset, and then he pulls back from his original outrage, as Lindsay Graham claims he is doing with the Syria pullout. But he does seem unbalanced. He’s also unbelievably ignorant as well as a crook, and his failed policies such as they are will smack him if Mueller, or some other law officials don’t get to him first. Yeah, “lock him up!” Well past time.
I would vote for Jamie Dimon.
I watched all of the Beto Cruz debates. Beto is an outstanding debater. He can connect with people and will land significant punches on the strong man. As for Daimler the strong man would melt that cheese.
Dimon.
I don’t see Jamie Dimon or other “Wall Streeter” inspiring the portion of the electorate that the non-Trump candidate will need to turn out in large numbers.
it’s funny that America will vote for a fake billionaire who inherited his money but they wouldn’t vote for an actual, real titan of finance
Recall that trump used Clinton’s meetings with Wall Street types to create distrust of her. There is a distrust of Wall Street that spans the political spectrum, it is a liability for Dimon. I believe he has complained about it.
yeah, he wasn’t so much complaining. he basically just said what you said — stated it as fact of life.
thing is: can you imagine Dimon doing something that was wholly stupid as president? I can’t. I mean, every president does something stupid eventually, but i bet the “God that was dumb”/cringe-worthy moments would be few and far between for him.
Clicked on the Beto clip, my thoughts were, Bobby Kennedy. It was immediate. There should not be another savior. That would probably end the same way. It would be too high of a price
Reaching for a new low.
There had better be a NEW face and a vibrant candidate. Like Beto. Not one of the usual and stale candidates like Biden (Hillary), Warren, etc. Otherwise, we could have another 4 years of crazy stuff allowed by Trump supporters in congress.
I will support BETO O’ROURKE 100%. I still wear my Beto for Senate button along with millions of Texans who cheered him and despise Cruz. He was really close to defeating Cruz and in fact, he won all the largest counties in Texas — rural support stayed with their lousy repub Cruz. Beto accepted and received ONLY campaign donations from individuals from all across the United States.
Check this out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beto_O%27Rourke
Here is a portion of a letter I mailed to Rafael (Ted) Cruz after the election – all the data shown is 100% correct and Cruz knows he barely won:
YOU ARE STILL A LOSER and clearly Texans had a hard choice to make about you and only because there are so many racist die-hard older Republicans in this state did you barely eek out a “win”. The other half of this State is not happy about it. Here are only a few Beto ‘wins’ across Texas!
*Your 'home turf' Harris County+, Tx (Houston) for Beto -- 57.9% to your 41.4%.
Fort Bend County (Sugar Land) supported Beto 55.7% to your 43.7%.
**Travis County (Austin) supported Beto 74.3% to your 24.7%.
*Bexar County (San Antonio) supported Beto 59.5% to your 39.6%
*Dallas County+ (Dallas) supported Beto 66.1% to your 33.2%
*Texas has three cities with more than 1 million people: Dallas, Houston and San Antonio, which also rank as 10 of the most populous cities in the country.
**There are also three cities with a population over 500,000, which are El Paso, Fort Worth and the capital, Austin, which are among the 25 largest cities in the US.
+The two most densely populated counties in Texas are Harris and Dallas Counties
NOTE: The most populated cities and counties in the entire State of Texas you did not win. “Twenty-two percent of voters in Texas were voting in a midterm for the very first time. These voters leaned towards O’Rourke by 7 points, while return voters favored Cruz by 6 points. Young voters overwhelmingly supported O’Rourke, 71 to 29 percent and voters aged 30-44 leaned towards him 51 to 47. Voters over 45 favored Cruz 58 to 41.”
Your service to this state has been a travesty. Your attention to your job is a joke. You are an ass-kissing embarrassment to Texas, even the ones who voted for you agree with that! We will be watching what you do and how you do it. Nothing is forever.
Beto O’Rourke, a charismatic congressman has a large and passionate following. Beto raised over $38 million from only individual citizens! Beto O’Rourke, is a rising star.
I am reminding you that most of America just met and recognized Beto for the leader he is meant to be — and one day some day, he will be President of the United States . . . and you never will.