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Deflationary Bust?
Well, I suppose it's only fitting that 2018 should close with 10-year yields back through 2.70 and sitting at their lowest levels since the February VIX spike.
Obviously, Monday's action was on thin volume but it appears growth concerns and crude (interrelated) again played a role. 10-year yields have come in some 50bp off the highs. Here's where we stand as the calendar flips.
(Bloomberg)
Clearly, the growth narrative is dying on the vine. We've staved off inversion thanks to short-end rep
US government debt financing is getting more interesting now. Too bad the economy’s getting clobbered for it.
What’s so interesting about it?
Step 1) Borrow money
Step 2) Don’t pay it back and let future generations worry about it
Step 3) Repeat steps 1 and 2
“Rising populism challenging global markets.” That has to promote deflation.
Lot of fixed income $ has been hiding out in short duration. With the Fed perceived as slowing hikes, and inflation set to ease on yoy energy/commodity px, some duration is going longer. Don’t write off inversion yet 🙂