Egg On Your Face: Fantastic Recession Calls And How To Trade Them
There is no recession. Despite all the doom and gloom from the economic pessimistas, the resilient U.S economy continues moving ahead quarter after quarter, year after year defying dire forecasts and delivering positive growth. These guys are going to wind up with egg on their faces.
-- Larry Kudlow, in the National Review on December 7, 2007
That, right there, was not a great call.
In fact, that might very well have been the single worst call in the history of finance and it came courtesy
Kudlow could finish his PhD with Powell at Trump University, then our guys could really know what they are talking about. Trump University could run the program in the Whitehouse basement?
It seems to me the proverbial recession is always (two years away) and no one remembers who predicted what and why by that point. After the downturn in 2008 there never was a strong economy because 10 years later it still can’t handle interest rates significantly above the rate of inflation.The seeming prosperity that appears reflected in corporate earnings (consequently ..the equity markets) is merely a result of Liquidity infusions into the banking and corporate system. The prosperity was retained only in select areas of the economy as a futile attempt to retain the Dollar Hegemony for a few more years. It may be in fact (20-20- hindsight) true that this time is different because mean reversion of economic metrics will not occur as usually has been the norm. These indeed are interesting times .
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