The “art of the deal”?
“Easy to win”?
“Tariffs are the greatest”?
To say expectations were low headed into today’s meeting between Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker would be to grossly understate the case.
Basically, there were no expectations at all and early reports on Wednesday suggested that the President is determined to move ahead with $200 billion in auto tariffs irrespective of what Europe offers and no matter how many times industry executives and GOP lawmakers tell him it’s a bad idea.
But perhaps Juncker came to Washington with a plan after all, because on Wednesday afternoon, Dow Jones reported that the President has secured multiple concessions from the E.U. including the following:
- Europeans agreed to work on more U.S. LNG exports
- Europeans agree on lowering industrial tariffs
- EU agrees to align regulator standards on medical products
- EU agrees to import more U.S. soybeans
The first point there is likely tied to Trump’s opposition to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which he blames for turning Germany into an energy serf of Russia (and if anyone knows a thing or two about Russian blackmail, it’s the President).
On the last point, that’s likely an effort to try and ameliorate the effect of China’s countermeasures which are of course aimed at undermining Trump’s support in the farm belt ahead of the midterms.
A subsequent press conference in the Rose Garden revealed the “details”. Apparently, Washington and Brussels are going to “work towards zero tariffs” and the E.U. will indeed be buying more soybeans from the U.S.
There was also a mention of “reforming the WTO”, presumably at Trump’s request given recent media reports that the President is profoundly displeased with the institution and would prefer to abandon it altogether.
Trump also indicated the steel and aluminum tariffs would be resolved, although it’s not entirely clear what that means at this juncture.
Juncker echoed Trump’s comments and both sides have agreed not to escalate the situation as long as negotiations are ongoing and in good faith.
What’s especially interesting here is that Trump and Juncker didn’t meet for very long, which means that one of the two men likely came to the table with a set of proposals in hand. Juncker indicated he did indeed come to Washington with the intention to make a deal.
While it’s too early to tell what this will ultimately mean for the auto tariffs, Trump will doubtlessly hold this up as an example of his dealmaking prowess on the way to claiming that if everyone just gives him enough time, he’ll squeeze concessions out of the rest of the world (including China) too.
Color me skeptical.
Yep, picking his nose did it. What a deal, donald you are the bestest neg-not out there.
Donald and the EU will shadow box for a while, nothing will be agreed, and the world will temporarily be a better place, or at least seem to be. Sadly, El Dumbo will make a meal out of this. He likes to be able to “negotiate” one on one instead of multilaterally, partly because he can bully better. It doesn’t make for a good system but for sclerotic relationships, and is a knee to the groin of the WTO.
Juncker may think he’s scored a victory but it’s unlikely to be much and may even be an own-goal, though this move is in keeping with “Eurospeak”. Trump will meanwhile crow and the mid-terms will pass and he’ll go on the attack again. That’s his technique; he fools people into thinking the one they are talking to is THE ONE, when that is just today’s one. Who has been the real fox will only become clear later, but if I were Juncker, I wouldn’t boast too soon. Trade war hasn’t been averted but at best postponed.
China by contrast will not be such easy prey. That henhouse is guarded by cobras. We live in a time of great change as the US is coerced out of the role of top dog to just one of a pack. Xi won’t be impressed by this “deal” but it won’t matter really. Don – as your predecessor told your mate, you’re on the wrong side of history. Engaging with China to really make the world a better place needs a completely different approach; it is beyond your wit.
Is this like North Korea denuclearization?
I wonder what Theresa May is making of all this.
Jean-Claude is at the Willard bar getting hammered right now.
This will be a death knell for a lot of pro-EU parties. What many are not appreciating is that the ultra nationalist factions in Europe are just as “insert-European-nation-first” as Trump is “America first”. They are kin in terms of rhetorical strategies but they see the world as an arena of nations aligned against each other. If the Juncker makes concessions its seen by one side as a loss, and this will not play well in Europe with nationalists who can use this as ammo against pro-EU mainstream parties. In other words, if the EU is so weak they give in to demands by the US, then what good are they? Why not leave and negotiate for themselves?
This seems like a Neville Chamberlain move to me. Juncker’s going to look stupid for trying to negotiate with a petulant no-nothing who thinks a trade deficit is automatically a loss and something he can personally dictate.
This feels like a global pump and dump. I thought that play disappeared with Cheney.
Buy the dips or go for the long game with the outflows?
Jus’ thinkin’ out loud.