(Black) Swan Lake
One of the themes that dominated in 2017 was the glaring disconnect between geopolitical/policy uncertainty and market-based measures of volatility.
Quite a bit of the uncertainty emanated from Donald Trump. Healthcare overhaul failed, the tax cuts and fiscal stimulus were delayed and generally speaking, rates and FX had priced out his entire agenda by August. Then came "fire and fury" and weeks later, the Charlottesville debacle. Those two episodes underscored how truly tenuous the geopolitica
‘How uncertain are we about economic policy? Let us quantify it and put it on a chart.’ They will make squiggly lines about anything.