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‘Really Bad Accidents’: Playing The Strategic Trade War Game
I don't know if you're one of the ~53 million people who follow the unofficial official (and in Trump world, that's not an oxymoron) Twitter account of America's fearless (and also feckless) orange leader, but suffice to say he's been on what amounts to a week-long tweet binge and quite a bit of the "covfefe" has revolved around his ongoing efforts to piss off every single one of America's major allies by rubbing his trade war in their face.
That continued on Friday morning ahead of the G-7 sum
Problems with BoFAML’s model:
(recognized by Marko): blackboxing the U.S. isn’t useful. As you’ve written before, U.S. economic health really only matters as it impacts opinion of Trump, and the model doesn’t account for that.
Per your chimpanzee piece, Trump’s decision-making calculus isn’t an ordinary sort of rational, so game theory probably isn’t the way to go.
“….the U.S. has no way of knowing, ahead of time, how far other countries can be pushed”
Well, yeah – except the folks in Fort Meade, of course.