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Good News: We Won’t ‘Spiral Into A Recession’. Bad News: Stocks Could Fall 25%
Overall, the analysis moderately increases our confidence that today’s economy should be able to weather fairly large rate increases, without spiraling into a recession.
I'm sure Goldman didn't mean for that to be funny, but it damn sure is.
It's like saying: "I thought about it and overall, it seems like my house should be able to weather a fairly large storm without collapsing on top of me and my family."
It's comforting. Sort of. But sort of not. Because you know, what's "fairly large"? A
A rendering of the multiple defects in Goldnan analysis would be 10x the length of this post. Actually at 3.30/10y it al melts globally especially in EM. In fact EM already is hitting quicksand. And the USA is late cycle especially if you sterilize hurricane consumption. It is a tragedy to let lagging data infect your analysis.
If you chopped my legs off at the knees I wouldn’t spiral to the ground, I would plummet. I guess that’s the accurate part. Don’t expect spirals when this falls.