Are you celebrating? You should be.
Because as you’re acutely aware, we’ve gone 395 trading days without a 5% pullback, the longest streak in recorded history:
To put it mildly, 2018 has gone well for risk assets. In fact, the MSCI AC World has had its best start to a year ever in data going back to 1987. And on a risk-adjusted basis, it’s a “well, fuck me runnin'” type of deal:
Speaking of the MSCI World, it too has gone the longest on record without a 5% drawdown:
Meanwhile, bonds have gotten off to an abysmal start, with 10Y Treasurys posting their worst performance through January 19th in history as yields spike amid jitters on global demand (e.g. China) and questions about what the ballooning deficit will entail for Treasury’s borrowing needs (i.e. increased supply at a time when the Fed is stepping away from the market):
So all of those visuals are super-fun, but for the chart of the day, we bring you the latest read on Goldman’s risk appetite indicator which is now at its highest level on record amid… well… amid a voracious appetite for risk:
Does that bode poorly? Not necessarily. According to Goldman, “while high risk appetite increases risk of disappointment, we find historically that the signal from macro data tends to trump the signal from risk appetite.”
That’s all fine and good but remember: all three times banks, energy shares and big cap tech sold off by 1% or more on the same day in 2017 the market was worried about something to do with Trump.
So if you’re looking for what “trumps” all signals, well, “the buck stops here”:
Not my best subject here BUT it seems to me that trump constantly brags about the stock market is so high and doing “so well” thanks to him. Funny, when it dropped *all three times* (and I did go back and read the link H inserted) trump was not taking any claim for that – total silence.
I guess just more evidence that his low support base also does not read; they only listen to what his mouth speaks. And they continue to bow to their Almighty Liar. Question — how do we get important information into their ears and brains?
There will be excuses and maybe a war (bombs away) to distract from the coming storm. “Obama gave me a terrible economy” is being shined up for use as we speak. Sh*t, we will need to deport anyone and everyone who isn’t rich enough to stay in Amerika (well we do need a few of those people to cut a lawn or clean a toilet).
Our problems are many and our politicians are bickering about kids healthcare and a couple of fu*king food stamps. The markets party on as Rome burns and the planet just takes hit after hit as we continue our own human created 6th extinction…. Guess who wins that hitting contest?
What will the market do tomorrow? What will you do tomorrow to make this a better place to live and possibly survive.
Good Curt! I am doing all I can do – my family thinks I am fighting a losing battle but I tell them, and just last night I did again, when you stop caring or stop fighting, you lose! You must have confidence that even though you feel like you’re fighting alone, you are not; millions of people are also doing all they can and it is all directed at the WH. Don’t anyone dare give up – never stop until this disgrace is over.
Like I told my brother last night, trump’s reign of terror will end and with hard pushing, it will not take another 3 years. Other ways it could end – he throws a tantrum and resigns, his health craters, he dies, he is impeached, he is jailed – I really don’t care which it is! He is unfortunately protected by bs protocol but his shit pile is building up and he will be gone.
VOTE!