You’ve got to choose one.
And here’s the question: a year and a half into the mania, which bubble was/is the most “bubbly”?
And here are the choices:
- Nasdaq Dot-Com (’98-’00)
- Inverse Vol. (’16-current)
- Bitcoin (’15-current)
- Topix (’82-’89)
- Dow Real Estate (’03-’07)
- Biotech (’11-’15)
- Chinese stocks (’14-’15)
You can probably guess where this is going.
See, the thing is, when it comes to bubbles, nothing initially grew faster than the short vol. trade:
That is remarkable considering this is a list that includes the margin-fueled, Chinese equity “miracle” of 2015, which was famous for turning bored housewives into leveraged day traders.
And so, having already grown faster in its initial stages than every other notable bubble on the list (and they probably should have included housing in Canada and Sweden), the only question now is whether it will continue to rise and ultimately surpass the 2+ year, exponential rally in BitCoin.
If it does, Seth Golden will be one of the richest people on the planet: