Spot The Problem With These Forecasts

So earlier today, following the NFP number (which was of course a beat), the Atlanta Fed lowered their GDPNow tracking forecast for Q3 growth to 3.7% from 4%. https://twitter.com/AtlantaFed/status/893477226645270528 Here was the rationale (assuming you care, which I'm reasonably sure you do not): The forecasts of third-quarter real consumer spending growth and real fixed investment growth declined from 3.0 percent and 5.2 percent to 2.8 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively, after this mornin

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One thought on “Spot The Problem With These Forecasts”

The most recent quarter will revise to sub 2% and that is with an excessively overshooting model. Speaking of models, a productive discussion might follow from complete publication of how the current 3.6% number was derived. But the FED is not required to hand in its homework, or even show its work.