Just Ignore This Chart

Here’s one you can file away in the “shit that doesn’t both me in the slightest” folder.

So this is basically the percentage of institutional investors/retail investors who think stocks are going to rise in the year ahead minus the percentage of those same investors who think the market is fairly valued.



As Goldman writes, “just as in surveys of consumers and businesses, for investors (both retail and institutional), the post-election rise in expectations for year-ahead returns has materially outpaced their relatively sober assessments of valuation [and] as a result, the difference between the two survey questions – ‘expected returns’ minus ‘current valuation’ – is close to an all-time high.”


2 thoughts on “Just Ignore This Chart

  1. Dear Heisenberg(s)

    Firtst of all i really appreciate most of your posts as truly worth reading and thinking about.

    So do i get it right, that one half of investors thinks the Dow is overvalued but will rise anyway? To me that sentiment does not sound very consistent.

    Thank you

  2. Oh Lord! Commercial real estate is overvalued by at least 25% at the same time chain stores are on record to break annual all time highs for closures and bankruptcies. The rich are salivating at more of everything rich and the poor are being replaced by “robots”. Debt of all kinds coming out of our ears, wages flat, tax collection at Treasury dwindling, markets way overvalued, real estate bubbling at 2007/2008 prices and the list goes on and on. Lastly, the 1st Q GDP comes in at a robust 0.5%. Yep, looks like we are on the rebound………..Oh, Wait for It………..Orange/julius wants the biggest tax cuts in history (which won’t happen, but it’s the thought that counts) for himself and those Richie Rich “unfriends” of his. On top of all that and much more could this be the “biggest bubble ever” (1929, 1987, 2000, 2008)????

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