As I mentioned earlier, I feel sorry for Sean Spicer.
I really do. I mean here’s a guy whose job it is to go out every damn day and defend crazy bullsh*t in front of a press corp. that, thanks to the anti-media rantings of the man from whom the crazy bullsh*t emanates, is out to crucify him.
Well on Friday Spicer did what you might expect. He took credit – on behalf of Trump – for the January jobs beat. Here’s a clip:
What Spicer didn’t take credit for – again on behalf of Trump – is the meager gain in hourly wages, where growth (a minuscule 0.1% m/m) widely missed estimates.
As noted earlier, that miss was enough to send yields lower along with the dollar and along with March rate hike odds , which fell to 26% from 32% on Thursday.
Yields and the dollar would eventually rebound on the following comments from San Francisco Fed chief John Williams:
FED’S WILLIAMS SEES SOME ARGUMENTS TO RAISE RATES IN MARCH
FED’S WILLIAMS SAYS ALL FOMC MEETINGS ARE LIVE
Now remember what I said earlier in “The Mystery Of Friday’s “Somehow Disappointing” Jobs Number“:
If the Fed keys on the AHE miss as the market thinks they will (completely ignoring the headline beat, the blockbuster ADP print from earlier this week, a falling dollar, near record high stocks, a credit market that screams “I’m rich and overleveraged!”) then I think it’s entirely fair to suggest there may just be some pressure coming from oh, I don’t know, the White House maybe, to find any excuse possible not to do anything that’s going to increase yield differentials and thereby give the dollar an excuse to rise.
Think about that and look at the chart above. It’s like they’re micromanaging this thing by the hour.
Trump wants to keep the reflation meme alive, but he also wants a weaker dollar. In pursuit of the latter objective, everyone keys on the AHE miss. For instance:
But wait a minute, we don’t want yields to fall too sharply because then we lose the reflation narrative, so make sure Williams doesn’t f*ck this 1:30 EST thing up…
I mean seriously… how funny is that?!