January Payrolls Beat, Unemployment Ticks Higher

Looks like we’re keying on hourly earnings miss.

  • U.S. Jan. Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 227k; Unemp. Rate at 4.8%
  • Nonfarm payrolls forecast est. 180k, range 140k-238k from 87 economists surveyed
  • Participation rate 62.9% vs prior 62.7%
  • Avg. hourly earnings 0.1% m/m, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
  • Nonfarm private payrolls rose 237k vs prior 165k; est. 175k, range 150k-240k from 40 economists surveyed
  • Manufacturing payrolls rose 5k after rising 11k in the prior month; economists estimated 5k, range -5k to 15k from 20 economists surveyed
  • Unemployment rate 4.8% vs prior 4.7%; est. 4.7%, range 4.6%-4.8% from 80 economists surveyed
  • Underemployment rate 9.4% vs prior 9.2%

The immediate reaction: dollar down, yields sharply lower, futs steady.

stocks

TREASURIES ERASE DECLINES, RISE AFTER JOBS REPORT
DOLLAR FALLS WITHIN RANGES AS EARNINGS OFFSET ABOVE-EST. NFP
TREASURIES RISE LED BY 5Y SECTOR AFTER MIXED JOBS DATA

Treasuries gained after a report showed U.S. average hourly earnings were lower than forecast in January, although the economy added more jobs than projected. The Labor Department said the U.S. added 227,000 jobs in January.

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