Uncertainty, “The Highly Improbable”, Goldman Sachs, And Some Swamp Draining

The "highly improbable" has become more probable lately. At least that's my contention. The paradox - and I've discussed this with investors both online and in person - is that despite the growing sense of uncertainty, the VIX is depressed and market participants are positioned as if they're absolutely sure of where things are headed. Note the latter point. The data on positioning indicates a high level of certainty among individuals but at the very same time, the very same data suggests tha