
“The Downside Tail Has Grown”
In all my many years observing and analyzing markets, I don't know that I've ever seen expectations so disconnected from anything that even approximates reality.
Here we sit at historically elevated multiples...
(Charts: Goldman)
... with an 11 handle VIX...
In short, everyone seems determined to convince themselves that Trump's economic policies will revive growth even as there are signs that some of the President-elect's agenda (e.g. the imposition of punishing tariffs) might very well